Somalia's Shift Towards Direct Elections: Challenges and Perspectives
Somalia is on the verge of a significant political transformation as it seeks to transition from an indirect electoral system to direct elections. This change is set to be implemented in the federal states starting in September 2025, following a series of agreements made by the National Consultative Council, which includes the federal government and the heads of federal states. The current indirect system, in place since 2000, relies on tribal quotas to allocate political positions, which has been criticized for lacking democratic representation.
The People's Assembly, comprising 275 members elected by approximately 30,000 voters, and the Senate, with 54 members representing the federal states, have historically operated under this tribal-based electoral framework. However, the Somali government, led by President Sheikh Mahmoud, is determined to shift towards a more democratic model. Despite this ambition, the path to direct elections is fraught with security, political, and logistical challenges that could hinder progress.
In May 2023, the National Consultative Council aimed to hold direct elections in October 2024, but the absence of necessary electoral laws led to a postponement. A subsequent meeting in October resulted in a new agreement to target September 2025 for these elections. However, two out of five federal states have expressed opposition, deeming the proposal unrealistic amid ongoing security and economic challenges. Critics, including members of the political opposition, argue that the government's push for direct elections is a tactic to extend its power rather than a genuine effort to democratize the electoral process.
Political Tensions and the Future of Elections in Somalia
The opposition states of Jubaland and Puntland have raised concerns about the feasibility of direct elections, citing a lack of consensus and the potential for political instability. Abdul Qadir Mahmoud, a member of the People's Assembly from Jubaland, emphasized that the current conditions do not support a successful democratic experience. He criticized the government's approach as a violation of the interim constitution, which could lead to a political crisis.
In a controversial move, Jubaland's President Ahmed Madobe announced the formation of a Local Elections and Boundaries Commission to prepare for indirect elections, a step the federal government deemed illegal. This situation has raised alarms about the potential for a constitutional vacuum and further political turmoil.
As the political landscape in Somalia evolves, the actions of the federal government and the responses from regional states will be crucial in determining the success of the proposed direct elections. The ongoing debates highlight the complexities of governance in a nation still grappling with the legacies of its past electoral systems and the urgent need for a stable and representative political framework.
