Turkey Mediates Tensions Between Somalia and Ethiopia Amidst Diverging Positions
In a bid to bridge the gap between Somalia and Ethiopia, Turkey's strong diplomatic relationship with both nations has been put to the test. The recent failure of the third round of negotiations on September 17 has highlighted significant divergences in positions, despite Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's efforts to mediate under the so-called 'Ankara Process.' This initiative aims to foster dialogue and resolve the ongoing political crisis stemming from tensions regarding territorial integrity and maritime access.
The stakes are high, as both countries share a lengthy border of over 1,600 kilometers, and the repercussions of their political disputes are felt across the region. Somalia perceives Ethiopia as an aggressor, particularly in light of its support for the separatist Somaliland region. Former Somali MP Mohamed El Amin Hassan emphasized that Somalia's position has been clear: the resolution of the crisis hinges on Ethiopia renouncing its memorandum of understanding with Somaliland.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, views the situation differently. Political analyst Abdul Shakur Abdul Samad notes that Ethiopia’s foreign policy is centered on building partnerships with its neighbors, asserting that the real issue lies between Somalia and Somaliland. He emphasizes that a stable Somalia is in Ethiopia's best interest, as it would facilitate regional cooperation and crisis resolution.
Trust in Turkish Mediation
Turkey's involvement is significant due to its historical ties with both nations. With substantial investments in Ethiopia and a prominent military presence in Somalia, Turkey is uniquely positioned to act as a mediator. Analysts from both sides express a degree of trust in Turkey's role, with Somalia seeing no sensitivity towards Turkish mediation, given their strategic partnership.
The terms of Turkey's mediation revolve around de-escalation, commitment to diplomatic solutions, and addressing Somalia's sovereignty concerns. Somali MP Mohamed Adam highlights that both parties must recognize Ethiopia's right to a sea outlet, yet not through Somaliland, a contentious point that could hinder progress.
External Influences and Regional Stability
The negotiations have also been complicated by external influences, with some observers suggesting that foreign interests are attempting to derail the talks for their own gain. Political analysts argue that without effective international intervention or Turkey leveraging its diplomatic tools, reaching a resolution may remain elusive.
Moreover, the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland poses a direct threat to Somalia's sovereignty and security. Mohamed El Amin warns that this could embolden separatist movements within Somalia and destabilize the region further. Economically, the agreement risks diminishing Somalia's control over its ports and coastal resources, posing a significant challenge to its sovereignty and economic independence.
As the situation unfolds, the effectiveness of Turkish mediation will be closely monitored, with hopes that it can lead to a peaceful resolution and restore stability in the Horn of Africa.
