Somalia's ongoing conflict with Al-Shabaab is deeply intertwined with the country's climate crisis, as the group uses resource control to exert power over vulnerable populations.
The humanitarian situation in Somalia is worsened by the dual pressures of climate change and armed conflict, necessitating a multifaceted approach to aid and development.
Local communities are increasingly taking action against Al-Shabaab's control, indicating a potential shift in power dynamics as dissatisfaction grows.
As climate change continues to impact Somalia, the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods are expected to increase, further straining resources and livelihoods.
The Somali government may need to engage in dialogue with Al-Shabaab to address common challenges posed by climate disasters, potentially leading to a temporary truce or cooperation on humanitarian efforts.
Increased international focus on climate adaptation projects could lead to more sustainable solutions for Somalia, but success will depend on overcoming security challenges and ensuring equitable distribution of aid.
Somalia is facing severe humanitarian challenges exacerbated by climate change and ongoing conflict with Al-Shabaab. The country ranks sixth in vulnerability to climate change, suffering from historic droughts and floods that have displaced over half a million people since late 2020. Al-Shabaab has exploited these conditions to strengthen its control over local populations by manipulating access to essential resources like water and food, as highlighted in a report by the International Crisis Group.
The report indicates that Somalia has experienced six consecutive rainy seasons leading to floods, while prolonged droughts have devastated agricultural livelihoods. The 2022 'Gu' rainy season was noted as the driest on record, with effects lingering into 2024. Additionally, deforestation and overgrazing have worsened the situation, leading to soil erosion and reduced agricultural productivity.
Al-Shabaab's control over resources has allowed it to impose taxes on farmers and herders, while also providing selective aid to those in need, thereby increasing its influence. The group has a history of obstructing humanitarian aid, which has led to significant local resentment and the formation of militias against it. Despite some attempts to provide aid during crises, the group's actions have often exacerbated the humanitarian situation.
The Crisis Group emphasizes the need for Somalia to adapt to climate change through improved water management, infrastructure rehabilitation, and community involvement in resource planning. The report calls for urgent investment in water infrastructure and sustainable strategies to combat the effects of climate change, which are critical for the country's resilience. It also highlights the importance of international support and cooperation to address these challenges effectively.