China’s Nuclear Arsenal Expansion Amid Military Challenges
A recent Pentagon report has revealed that China has nearly tripled its nuclear arsenal since 2020, with estimates suggesting that the country will exceed 600 operational nuclear warheads by mid-2024. This significant increase, from approximately 200 warheads in 2020, highlights China's ambition to modernize its military capabilities. The report indicates that by 2030, China could possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads, indicating a strategic shift in its military posture.
The Pentagon's analysis suggests that China's nuclear force is diversifying, incorporating various systems including precision strike missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This diversification aims to address perceived asymmetries in military capabilities, particularly in relation to the United States. A senior U.S. defense official noted that China is developing new ICBMs capable of reaching U.S. territories, including Hawaii and Alaska, as part of its broader military modernization goals.
Anti-Corruption Campaign Impacting Military Expansion
Despite the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, China's military modernization efforts are facing significant challenges due to a widespread anti-corruption campaign. The Pentagon report highlights that at least 15 senior military officials and defense industry executives were removed from their positions in 2023 due to corruption allegations. This ongoing campaign, while aimed at building a more professional military, is disrupting the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) progress towards its 2027 modernization goals.
The report emphasizes that the frequent turnover of senior military personnel could slow down critical projects within the defense industry. As China seeks to learn from Russia's military actions in Ukraine, it is also striving for greater self-sufficiency to mitigate the impact of potential sanctions. However, the anti-corruption drive, a hallmark of President Xi Jinping's leadership, is seen as essential for maintaining political reliability and operational capability within the PLA. Experts suggest that while the campaign is necessary, it may inadvertently hinder the military's expansion plans in the short term.
