Analysts Assess Ceasefire with Hezbollah as a Setback for Netanyahu
The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has been widely interpreted by analysts as a significant defeat for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This truce comes amidst ongoing tensions in Gaza, where Netanyahu has refrained from negotiating a similar ceasefire with Hamas, primarily due to personal and political motivations. The ceasefire with Hezbollah, perceived as fragile, was influenced by pressure from the outgoing Biden administration and concerns over the potential demands from the incoming Trump administration.
Israeli military analysts, including Amos Harel from Haaretz, argue that the ceasefire reflects a recognition that the conflict with Hezbollah has reached a stalemate, with Israel unable to achieve its military objectives in Lebanon. Harel emphasizes that while the ceasefire may facilitate discussions regarding the return of detainees held by Hamas, it poses new challenges for Israel, particularly in maintaining security in northern settlements. He predicts that Hezbollah will likely seek to rebuild its military capabilities, suggesting that the ceasefire may ultimately collapse, leading to renewed conflict.
Sima Kadmon, writing for Yedioth Ahronoth, echoes these sentiments, questioning why Netanyahu is willing to negotiate with Hezbollah while avoiding a truce in Gaza. She suggests that Netanyahu's reluctance to engage with Hamas stems from fears of political repercussions, including the stability of his government coalition and the potential loss of support from right-wing factions. Kadmon argues that Netanyahu's focus on the ceasefire with Hezbollah serves to distract from the ongoing crisis in Gaza, where the situation remains dire for the 101 detainees still held by Hamas.
Daniel Friedman, a law lecturer at Tel Aviv University, criticizes Netanyahu for creating an illusion of victory through the ceasefire, asserting that Israel lacks the military and political leverage to decisively eliminate Hezbollah or Hamas. He contends that the ongoing conflict has resulted in a failure for Israel, with no clear resolution in sight. Friedman warns that the narrative of triumph being promoted by Netanyahu does not align with the harsh realities on the ground, where both Hezbollah and Hamas continue to exert control and influence.
