The current ceasefire is being tested by ongoing Israeli military actions, which may undermine the agreement's effectiveness and lead to further conflict.
The delay in forming the international monitoring committee has exacerbated tensions, allowing Israel to exploit the situation without immediate oversight.
The responses from Hezbollah indicate a readiness to defend Lebanese sovereignty, which could escalate if Israeli violations continue.
If Israeli violations persist, Hezbollah may escalate its military responses, potentially leading to a renewed cycle of conflict.
The formation of the international monitoring committee may bring some level of stability, but its effectiveness will depend on the cooperation of both parties and the international community's involvement.
In the absence of a robust response to violations, the ceasefire may become increasingly fragile, risking a return to open conflict.
In the wake of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect on November 27, 2024, the situation in southern Lebanon remains precarious as Israeli violations threaten its stability. Reports indicate that within hours of the ceasefire's initiation, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on Lebanese territories, particularly targeting civilian areas and preventing residents from returning to over 60 towns, imposing a night curfew. This has led to more than 60 documented violations by Israel, prompting Hezbollah to respond with targeted attacks on Israeli positions, signaling a potential escalation in hostilities.
Political analysts suggest that while the ceasefire is under significant strain, its complete collapse is not imminent. Tawfiq Shoman, a political analyst, noted that Israel's actions appear to be aimed at demonstrating military strength and testing the U.S. response to its violations. Meanwhile, the formation of an international monitoring committee, which is expected to oversee the ceasefire, has been delayed, contributing to the ongoing tensions.
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz of Israel has issued stern warnings to both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, emphasizing Israel's commitment to enforcing ceasefire agreements with a policy of 'maximum response and zero tolerance' for violations. He highlighted the Lebanese government's responsibility in maintaining the ceasefire, suggesting that any further breaches could lead to severe repercussions for Lebanon.
- The ceasefire agreement was reached amid international efforts to stabilize the region, with France playing a mediating role and planning to send its Defense Minister to Lebanon to discuss the situation. The U.S. has also been involved in facilitating discussions between the two parties.
