Overview of the Ankara Declaration
On December 11, 2024, Somalia and Ethiopia signed the "Ankara Declaration" in Turkey, facilitated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This agreement marks a significant diplomatic effort aimed at resolving longstanding tensions between the two nations, particularly in the volatile Horn of Africa. The declaration emphasizes mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and aims to foster cooperation for economic prosperity, including establishing a reliable maritime route for Ethiopia through Somali ports.
Motivations Behind the Agreement
Ethiopia's strategic motivations for signing the agreement include securing a sustainable maritime route to reduce its dependence on Djibouti's port, which currently handles 90% of its trade. This shift could save Ethiopia substantial transportation costs and enhance its economic stability amidst ongoing internal challenges, including the aftermath of the Tigray conflict and security issues from armed rebel groups. Conversely, Somalia seeks to strengthen its political position and prevent Ethiopia from forming separate agreements with Somaliland, thereby ensuring its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Implications and Future Outlook
The Ankara Declaration has garnered international support, signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics. While Turkey emerges as a key diplomatic player, the agreement poses challenges for Djibouti and Egypt, who may lose economic and strategic advantages as Ethiopia seeks alternative trade routes. However, unresolved issues, such as Ethiopia's prior agreements with Somaliland and the lack of clarity regarding maritime access, suggest that while the declaration is a step towards peace, the path forward remains fraught with complexities and potential flashpoints.
