Turkish Historian Halil Berkatay: World War III Has Already Begun
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Halil Berkatay, a Turkish historian and professor emeritus at Ibn Haldun University, posited that the world is already experiencing the onset of World War III. He draws parallels between the current geopolitical climate and the events leading up to World War II, emphasizing that the conflict in Ukraine, the tensions in the Middle East, and the U.S.-China rivalry over Taiwan represent a series of escalating conflicts that could lead to a larger, more destructive war. Berkatay argues that since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the international landscape has shifted dramatically, with numerous regional conflicts intensifying.
Berkatay highlights that the U.S. and China are engaged in a power struggle over Taiwan, using the island as a proxy in their broader geopolitical contest. Meanwhile, the ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza have expanded into Lebanon and Syria, raising fears of a wider conflict involving Iran. He stresses that these interconnected conflicts resemble the prelude to World War II, where small wars and proxy battles gradually escalated into a full-scale global conflict.
The Role of History in Predicting Future Conflicts
Berkatay discusses the importance of studying history to draw lessons about contemporary conflicts. He notes that while historians cannot predict the future with absolute certainty, they can identify patterns and potential outcomes based on historical precedents. For instance, he cites the dangers of excessive military spending, which has historically led to economic decline and social unrest. He asserts that the current trajectory of military engagement in Ukraine and the Middle East suggests a grim future if lessons from history are ignored.
The historian also reflects on the evolution of international relations, particularly the role of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against large-scale conflicts. He believes that while nuclear weapons have historically prevented direct confrontations between superpowers, the current geopolitical climate, marked by rising nationalism and the breakdown of established diplomatic norms, poses a significant risk of escalation.
Berkatay warns that the international community must heed the lessons of the past to avoid repeating catastrophic mistakes. He advocates for a renewed commitment to diplomacy and cooperation among nations to address the underlying tensions that threaten global stability.
