Biden's Potential Resignation and the Democratic Dilemma
The incumbent US President Joe Biden is under immense criticism due to his recent performance, particularly during the TV duel against his Republican opponent, Donald Trump. Concerns about Biden's mental state have led to calls for his resignation before the 2024 US election. Prominent figures, including some Democrats and even celebrities like George Clooney, have voiced their opinions in favor of a new Democratic candidate. The question remains: how can the Democrats manage their shaky presidential candidate?
The Complexities of Replacing Biden
Christian Lammert, a professor of political science at the John F. Kennedy Institute of the Free University of Berlin, explains that the primary system, introduced in the 1960s, complicates the process of replacing a candidate. Unlike the past, where party elites had a larger role in candidate selection, today's primary system makes a candidate firmly established once elected. This makes the idea of Biden's resignation more challenging. According to Lammert, Biden would need to voluntarily resign for another candidate to be considered. The potential scenarios include Biden resigning immediately, announcing his non-candidacy publicly, or declaring his resignation within the party, each carrying its own risks.
Viable Alternatives and Strategic Decisions
Elaine Kamarck, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, emphasizes that replacing Biden is not unprecedented but politically challenging. The only viable alternative, she suggests, is Vice President Kamala Harris, given her national relevance and familiarity with the delegates. Other potential candidates like Governors Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, and Gavin Newsom lack the same national profile. The commitment of the 3,949 delegates to Biden is also a significant factor, as they are expected to vote 'in good conscience' for the candidate they were selected to represent. The Democratic National Committee's roll call vote process, which could be held virtually before the Chicago convention, adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
In conclusion, while there are doubts about Biden's ability to continue, experts like Lammert and Kamarck suggest that the Democrats should carefully weigh their options. The party must consider the risks and benefits of sticking with Biden versus the potential upheaval of introducing a new candidate.
- Biden must address public concerns about his health and clarify that his recent TV debate performance was an anomaly. This transparency could bolster his chances in the upcoming election.
- Despite the criticism, Biden has previously defeated Trump, and there have been no significant structural changes since 2020 that would favor Trump. Trump's legal issues and controversial plans for a second term could also work in Biden's favor.
- The Democratic Party must navigate the delicate balance of loyalty to Biden and the pragmatic need for a viable candidate. The decision-making process will be crucial in ensuring the party's success in the 2024 election.
