Trump's victory could lead to a more independent U.S. foreign policy that prioritizes personal interests over established alliances.
Netanyahu's quick congratulations to Trump indicate a strategic shift in his approach to U.S.-Israel relations post-election.
Trump's unpredictable nature may deter Iran from aggressive actions against Israel, but could also lead to escalated tensions in the region.
If Trump prioritizes personal interests, it may lead to a reevaluation of U.S. support for Israel's controversial domestic policies.
Increased tensions between the U.S. and its European allies could arise if Trump pursues a more isolationist foreign policy.
Iran may recalibrate its military strategy in response to Trump's return, potentially reducing direct threats to Israel.
Implications of Trump's Victory for Israel's Political Landscape
The recent analysis by Israeli military analyst Amos Harel, published in Haaretz, sheds light on the potential repercussions of Donald Trump's anticipated return to the presidency for Israel. Harel emphasizes that while Trump's support for Israel is well-known, his victory could complicate the Israeli-American alliance. He suggests that Trump may prioritize his personal interests over the longstanding partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. This shift could lead to unpredictable outcomes in U.S. foreign policy towards Israel.
Netanyahu's Strategic Calculations
Harel notes that Netanyahu has been optimistic about Trump's return, believing it would empower his government. However, the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has been complex, marked by moments of tension. For instance, Trump expressed frustration when Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory in 2020, prompting Netanyahu to act quickly in congratulating Trump this time to avoid similar backlash. The analyst warns that Trump's return may embolden Netanyahu to push through controversial legislation that threatens Israeli democracy, particularly laws that expand the executive's control over the judiciary, which have faced significant domestic opposition.
Regional and Global Consequences
One of the most significant aspects of Trump's potential presidency is his approach to Iran. Harel suggests that Trump's unpredictable nature could deter Iran from escalating confrontations with Israel, as the Iranian leadership fears his aggressive stance. During his previous term, Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, a move that Netanyahu supported despite its long-term implications. Furthermore, Harel cautions that Trump's foreign policy could destabilize Western alliances, particularly in Europe and Asia, as his admiration for authoritarian regimes may shift U.S. foreign policy priorities, potentially undermining support for allies like Ukraine and Taiwan.
