Erdogan's Preference for Trump: Analyzing Turkey's Strategic Interests
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is being heralded as one of the most significant in American history, with far-reaching implications for global politics. Among the nations closely monitoring the outcome is Türkiye, which has a vested interest in the policies of the next U.S. president. Current indications suggest that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may prefer a Trump victory due to historical tensions with the Democratic Party, particularly regarding military coups in Turkey and support for groups Ankara deems terrorist organizations.
Historical Context: The Democratic Party and Turkish Coups
Since the 1960s, Türkiye has experienced multiple military coups, many of which coincided with Democratic administrations in the U.S. This has fostered a sense of distrust towards Democratic leaders among Turkish officials. For instance, President John F. Kennedy's administration did not intervene during the execution of Prime Minister Adnan Menderes following a coup, and similar patterns continued under other Democratic presidents, leading to heightened sensitivities regarding U.S. foreign policy in Turkey.
Current Geopolitical Landscape and Future Implications
Erdogan's administration is particularly concerned about U.S. support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates, which Turkey considers terrorist organizations. Trump's approach during his first term was more favorable to Turkey's military objectives in Syria, which may explain Erdogan's preference for a Trump presidency. Additionally, Trump's promise to seek a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine aligns with Turkey's own foreign policy goals. However, despite potential alignment on certain issues, Erdogan must navigate a complex relationship with Trump, marked by both cooperation and conflict, particularly regarding military support and the situation in Gaza and Lebanon.
