US Intelligence Assesses Nuclear Threats Amid Ukraine Conflict
In a recent analysis, U.S. intelligence has determined that allowing Ukraine to utilize American weaponry for strikes deep into Russian territory does not heighten the risk of nuclear escalation. This conclusion comes despite ongoing threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding potential nuclear action. According to multiple U.S. officials cited by Reuters, the assessment indicates that Russia does not perceive a significant military advantage in escalating to nuclear weapons, viewing such an option as a last resort.
The decision to permit Ukraine to launch long-range strikes, including the use of ATACMS missiles, was made in light of recent military developments, including the deployment of North Korean troops to the Russian border. Ukraine began these operations on November 19, with the support of Western allies, which has prompted a response from Moscow. Following the strikes, Russia retaliated with a medium-range ballistic missile attack on a military facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, on November 21, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
Concerns Over Russian Retaliation and Cyber Threats
While U.S. officials have downplayed fears of nuclear escalation, they acknowledge that the use of Western weapons by Ukraine could provoke Russian attacks on U.S. bases. A European diplomat has suggested that Russia's response may involve sabotage and cyber attacks aimed at intimidating Western nations that support Ukraine. The U.S. intelligence community believes that exaggerated fears of nuclear escalation have previously hindered the timely provision of military support to Ukraine, potentially impacting the broader strategic landscape in Eastern Europe.
