Union Poised for Victory in 2024 European Elections
Berlin – As the European elections draw near, the Union party, comprising CDU and CSU, is set to achieve a decisive victory in Germany according to the latest surveys. Data from the ZDF “Politbarometer Extra” and Ipsos reveal that the Union stands at 30 percent, ahead of other parties. This figure shows an improvement from the 28.9 percent registered during the last European elections in 2019.
Current surveys suggest a fierce contest for the second place with the SPD, Greens, and AfD each securing 14 percent. These results showcase a significant decline for the Greens, which had garnered 20.5 percent in the 2019 elections. Sahra Wagenknecht's newly founded alliance, BSW, is noteworthy as it secures seven percent, surpassing the FDP at four percent. Other smaller parties like Left and Volt each have three percent.
The Election Research Group caution that these values are indicative of the current mood and not a concrete forecast for the outcomes on June 9th, 2024. Importantly, 42 percent of the polled voters are still undecided or uncertain about their voting choice.
Voter Turnout and Broader European Context
Voter turnout is anticipated to remain stable compared to the 2019 elections, with 61 percent showing strong interest in the upcoming elections. The elections across the 27 EU states commenced with the Netherlands voting on June 6th, while most countries, including Germany, will vote on Sunday, June 9th.
France, where 81 deputies will be elected to the European Parliament, is also seeing heightened voter participation, projected to be slightly above the 2019 turnout. This election marks the last national election during Emmanuel Macron's mandate, possibly reshaping the political landscape ahead of the next presidential election in 2027.
- A total of 1,223 randomly selected eligible voters were surveyed by the Elections Research Group via telephone and online on June 5th and 6th. The potential error margin is around two to three percentage points.
- In France, a proportional voting system is used, with candidates needing to secure over 5% of votes to win a seat in the European Parliament. Abstention rates are a significant concern, with participation estimated at 52.5%, a slight increase from the 2019 turnout.
- In 2024, 720 deputies will be elected across Europe, with notable attention on how regional dynamics, such as in France and Germany, impact the future political alignment of the European Parliament.
