Withdrawal of International Forces from Iraq: A New Chapter Ahead
The imminent withdrawal of international coalition forces from Iraq marks a significant turning point in the nation’s security landscape. According to sources, American and Iraqi negotiators have reached an agreement to withdraw troops in two stages, with the first phase set for September 2025 and the final phase in late 2026. This decision comes after a prolonged military presence following the U.S. invasion in 2003, which aimed to dismantle the regime of Saddam Hussein and combat the rise of ISIS.
The coalition, which includes countries like Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, will see a reduction of forces, especially from the Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province and a significant decrease in Baghdad by September 2025. However, U.S. and coalition forces are expected to maintain a presence in the Kurdistan Region until the end of 2026 to continue operations against ISIS in neighboring Syria.
Iraq's Capability and Regional Dynamics
Military expert Safaa Al-Aasam highlights that Iraq is prepared to manage its own security needs post-withdrawal, provided it receives adequate support and intelligence. The Iraqi government has firmly rejected any requests for extending the presence of foreign troops, emphasizing its readiness to fill the military void left by their departure. The discussions around this withdrawal have been complicated, with previous negotiations indicating a complete withdrawal by June 2025, which later shifted to a two-year timeline.
The geopolitical implications of this withdrawal are significant, as experts warn that the absence of U.S. forces may allow for increased influence from Iran and Russia in Iraq. Security specialist Adnan Al-Kanani points out that Iraq has historically managed its own affairs and suggests that foreign military presence has often exacerbated local conflicts. The complexities of regional power dynamics mean that while the withdrawal is planned, the reality of international interests in Iraq could alter these timelines.
- The withdrawal plan has faced delays, initially expected to be announced weeks ago, but was postponed due to escalating tensions in the region, particularly related to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Despite the planned withdrawal, there are concerns about the potential power vacuum that could be created, with various factions vying for influence in Iraq. Political analyst Ayser Al-Hassoun argues that complete withdrawal is unlikely due to the U.S.'s economic and strategic interests in the region. He suggests that the U.S. may use tactics such as releasing ISIS members to maintain leverage over Iraq. This sentiment is echoed by Iraqi media figure Abbas Al-Lami, who questions the sincerity of the American commitment to withdraw, given the historical context of U.S. military presence in the country.
