Turkey's Strategic Gains Following Assad's Overthrow
The recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has significantly shifted the political landscape in Turkey, as articulated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. He noted that while Turkey may have been slow to respond to the Syrian crisis, it has ultimately taken decisive action. Between 2016 and 2020, Turkey conducted four military operations in Syria aimed at eliminating threats from separatist organizations, particularly the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). With the fall of Assad's regime, Turkey is poised to enhance its influence both domestically and regionally.
The political ramifications of Assad's ousting are already evident within Turkey. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader, Devlet Bahceli, expressed elation over the liberation of Aleppo, emphasizing its historical significance to Turkey. In contrast, the Kurdish left-wing Democracy and Participation Party (DEM) has voiced concerns about potential government overreach and the implications for Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. This political divide highlights the complexities of Turkey's internal dynamics as it navigates its role in the Syrian conflict.
Implications for Refugee Crisis and Future Elections
The overthrow of Assad is expected to have profound implications for the ongoing refugee crisis in Turkey, which currently hosts nearly 3 million Syrian refugees. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya indicated that a stabilization in Aleppo could facilitate the return of a significant number of refugees, alleviating some of the political pressure on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The potential repatriation of refugees could diminish the influence of far-right parties that have capitalized on anti-refugee sentiments.
Looking ahead to the 2028 elections, the political landscape in Turkey may be reshaped by these developments. The Kurdish political factions may reassess their strategies, moving away from reliance on the PKK and towards greater engagement in the political process. This shift could bolster the AKP's position, especially if economic conditions improve. The end of the Assad regime marks a pivotal moment that could redefine Turkey's political trajectory and its role in the broader Middle Eastern context.
