The Rapid Collapse of the Assad Regime
The recent developments in Syria have raised serious questions about the future of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. According to Charles Lister, a prominent expert on Syrian affairs, armed opposition forces have taken control of approximately 250 cities, towns, and villages in northern Syria within just a week. Notably, the opposition captured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, in less than 24 hours, signaling a significant collapse of the regime's front lines.
Economic and Political Miscalculations
Lister's analysis highlights that Assad's regime has been weakening for some time, contrary to the belief that he had 'won' the war. The decline in international interest and diplomatic efforts regarding Syria has exacerbated the situation. As many governments shifted their focus to other global challenges, the Syrian economy has deteriorated, with the Syrian pound plummeting to 17,500 to the dollar as of December 4, 2024, from 1,150 in early 2020. Despite the regime's involvement in organized crime, generating substantial profits from drug trafficking, the overall economic collapse has left the Syrian populace in dire straits.
The Role of Organized Crime and Armed Opposition
The Assad regime's entanglement with organized crime, particularly in the production of the amphetamine Captagon, has infiltrated its security apparatus. Lister notes that the regime may now be the world's largest drug regime, with operations led by Assad's brother, Maher. This criminal enterprise has contributed to the fragmentation of the regime's military cohesion. Meanwhile, the armed opposition, particularly the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has significantly strengthened its capabilities since 2020, effectively changing the dynamics on the battlefield. As Syrians increasingly take to the streets demanding Assad's overthrow, the future of his regime appears increasingly uncertain.
