The rapid advance of rebel forces suggests a significant shift in the balance of power within Syria, potentially leading to a fragmented state with various factions vying for control.
The involvement of external powers, particularly Iran and Russia, remains crucial in determining Assad's fate. Their support has been pivotal in sustaining his regime, and any withdrawal of that support could hasten his downfall.
The situation underscores the unpredictability of the Syrian conflict, where alliances and power dynamics can shift rapidly, impacting regional security and international relations.
If Assad's regime collapses, Syria may descend into a state of fragmentation, with various factions establishing control over different regions, reminiscent of the post-Saddam Iraq scenario.
The fall of Assad could embolden other opposition movements across the Middle East, potentially leading to a wave of uprisings or conflicts in neighboring countries.
The U.S. may face increased pressure to reassess its military presence in Syria, especially regarding its troops stationed near the Jordanian-Syrian border, as the situation evolves.
In a dramatic turn of events, the Syrian civil war has reached a critical juncture, with reports indicating that Bashar al-Assad's regime could fall within days. U.S. officials have noted a rapid advance by rebel forces, particularly in major cities like Homs and Hama, which have recently succumbed to opposition control. This shift marks a significant change after years of a stagnant conflict, raising questions about the future of Syria and the stability of the broader Middle East.
The Biden administration is closely monitoring the situation, with some officials suggesting that Assad's regime may lose all semblance of power by the end of the week. However, they caution that this assessment is not definitive, as the potential for a coup or reorganization within Assad's ranks could delay a complete takeover by the rebels. The rebel group leading this advance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., complicating the geopolitical landscape.
As the regime falters, regional powers are recalibrating their strategies. Iran, which has invested heavily in Assad's regime, is reportedly weighing its options as the situation deteriorates. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, Assad's ally, is grappling with its own challenges following recent conflicts with Israel, further isolating the Syrian leader.
King Abdullah of Jordan is also on high alert, recognizing that the collapse of Assad's regime could lead to increased instability in Jordan, which shares a long border with Syria. The potential for rebel forces to spill over into Jordan poses a significant security concern for both Jordan and Israel, which has historically maintained a stable relationship with its neighbor.
