The RSF's initial military successes have not translated into lasting control or legitimacy, highlighting the complexities of power dynamics in Sudan.
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan continues to escalate, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict and lack of effective negotiations.
The international community's perception of the SAF as more legitimate than the RSF may influence future diplomatic efforts and peace negotiations.
If the RSF fails to achieve a significant military victory, they may be compelled to engage in more genuine negotiations, potentially altering their approach to the conflict.
Continued violence and humanitarian crises could provoke increased international intervention or pressure for a resolution to the conflict.
The potential establishment of a demilitarized zone and national dialogue could pave the way for a more stable political environment in Sudan, though significant challenges remain.
The Economist highlights the deteriorating situation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, noting their initial strength a year ago when they controlled significant areas of Khartoum and Darfur. However, recent setbacks against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have weakened their position, leading to increased violence against civilians, particularly in West Darfur, which has raised concerns of ethnic cleansing.
Negotiations aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict have stalled, primarily due to the SAF's refusal to participate. The RSF's claims of fighting for democracy are viewed skeptically, given their origins in the Janjaweed militia, notorious for past atrocities in Darfur. Despite this, the RSF asserts a commitment to Sudan's unity, recognizing the challenges of establishing an independent state in Darfur due to its geographic and resource limitations.
The RSF leader has proposed a ceasefire and a withdrawal from civilian areas as a starting point for negotiations, suggesting a potential role for African peacekeeping forces to facilitate a national dialogue. However, the SAF's legitimacy among the Sudanese populace complicates the RSF's attempts to position themselves as a credible peace partner.
