The Syrian opposition has made significant progress in its military operations, particularly with the recent capture of Hama military airport, indicating a shift in the balance of power against the regime forces. Military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna notes that the regime's inability to maintain control over key areas has led to a strategic retreat, prompting a repositioning of their forces. This decline in defensive capability is critical, as Hama's location is strategically vital, being approximately 100 kilometers from the coastal region, which serves as the government's stronghold.
Hanna highlights the regime's challenges, including a shortage of troops, which forces them to abandon certain areas to consolidate their strength elsewhere. Despite these gains, he believes the opposition is unlikely to capture Homs, a crucial city that connects Damascus to the coast, often referred to as 'useful Syria.'
The situation is further complicated by recent military maneuvers by the Russian Navy, which involved ten ships and hypersonic anti-ship missiles. These actions are perceived as a message to Turkey and Iran, indicating that any future resolution in Syria will align with the 'Astana' agreements. Hanna suggests that Russia's current non-intervention may be a tactic to pressure the regime into pursuing a political solution that aligns with Turkish interests and Iranian concerns.
Hanna concludes that the legitimacy of Russian presence in Syria is tied to the existing political system, and any significant changes could prompt a reevaluation of this presence, potentially leading to increased geopolitical interventions.
