What Economic Model Awaits Syria's Future?
As Syria emerges from a decade of conflict, the nation grapples with the daunting task of reviving its shattered economy. President Bashar al-Assad has reintroduced the concept of a socialist economy, albeit with a modern reinterpretation, as a potential path forward. The Syrian economy has suffered significant damage, with losses estimated to be around $530 billion, and the infrastructure devastated by approximately 40%. Unemployment has soared to 42%, while the local currency has lost 97% of its value.
Despite the relative calm on the war fronts, analysts express skepticism about the government's measures to stimulate production, investment, and monetary sectors. Kenan Yaghi, a former Finance Minister, predicts a modest economic growth of 1.5% this year, but emphasizes the need for international support and loans to rebuild infrastructure. Meanwhile, economic expert Abdul Sattar Dimashqiya warns that the government's temporary measures lack a clear strategy and fail to address the long-standing structural issues of the economy.
The Syrian economy's identity crisis stems from decades of conflicting policies and strategies. Historically, it has oscillated between a socialist framework and liberal market practices, leading to a hybrid economy that lacks coherence. Former Economy Minister Lamia Assi criticized the conflicting approaches that have perpetuated economic inequality and corruption, resulting in a concentration of wealth among a select few.
In a controversial move, Assad's recent statements suggest a return to socialist principles, focusing on social justice rather than strict state ownership. However, economists argue that this reinterpretation does not provide a new solution, as previous attempts to blend socialism with liberalism have primarily benefited the regime's elite, leaving the majority of the population in poverty.
Economic experts advocate for a 'Fourth Way for Development and Reconstruction,' proposing a model that integrates market mechanisms with planning to address social inequalities and promote sustainable growth. This approach aims to redefine the national economy's identity, emphasizing the need for a coherent strategy that prioritizes social justice and equitable wealth distribution. As Syria navigates its post-conflict recovery, the challenge remains to establish a viable economic framework that supports the needs of all citizens.
