Understanding the 'Deterrence of Aggression' Operation in Syria
On November 27, 2024, the Syrian revolutionary factions launched the 'Deterrence of Aggression' operation, marking a significant shift in the conflict dynamics in northern Syria. This operation ended a period of stagnation that had persisted since 2020, following a ceasefire agreement between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The rapid advances made by the attacking forces, who captured large territories in less than a week, have raised critical questions about the motivations behind the operation, its timing, and the implications for the Syrian conflict.
The operation was initiated by factions based in Idlib Governorate, which formed the 'Joint Operations Administration' comprising groups such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Ahrar al-Sham Movement. Within just three days, they gained control over significant areas in western Aleppo and parts of Idlib, including key military installations and neighborhoods previously held by the Syrian army and its allies. The total area captured by the Syrian rebel forces is estimated to be around 450 square kilometers, achieved through both the 'Deterrence of Aggression' and a concurrent operation called 'Dawn of Freedom.'
Implications and Future Prospects
The timing of the 'Deterrence of Aggression' operation has sparked debate among observers, particularly as it coincided with a perceived decline in Iranian influence and reduced Russian military support in the region. Reports indicate that Moscow has significantly decreased its air support, with fewer than ten operational aircraft remaining at its Hmeimim base. This shift has emboldened the opposition factions, who view the current geopolitical landscape as an opportunity to alter the balance of power in their favor.
The Turkish government has acknowledged the operations as part of the 2019 de-escalation agreement, while the Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed a desire to restore calm in the region. However, Iran remains committed to supporting the Syrian regime, as evidenced by the visit of its Foreign Minister to Damascus shortly after the operation commenced. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing clashes expected as both sides prepare for potential escalations, particularly in Hama province, where the opposition aims to expand its control further.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the international community's response and the actions of regional powers will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Syria.
