Syrian Opposition Launches 'Deterrence of Aggression' Operation Amidst Escalating Tensions
In a significant military escalation in northern Syria, opposition factions have launched a surprise attack dubbed 'Deterrence of Aggression' against regime positions in the western Aleppo countryside. This operation, initiated on November 27, has resulted in the opposition gaining control over vast areas in both the western Aleppo and eastern Idlib countrysides within 48 hours. The operation is a response to the Syrian regime's increasing artillery and aerial assaults on Idlib, which have raised concerns about a potential large-scale military operation against the province.
The opposition's military operations management room, which includes groups such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, has stated that the primary objective is to curb the regime's aggressive plans and ensure the safety of civilians in opposition-controlled areas. Commander Hassan Abdul Ghani emphasized that defending these civilians is a duty, not an option, with the ultimate goal of facilitating the return of displaced individuals to their homes. However, analysts suggest that the operation may have broader objectives, including expanding opposition-controlled territories and restoring international attention to the Syrian conflict after years of stagnation.
Rapid Gains and International Implications
The rapid progress made by opposition forces has been notable, with significant territorial gains reported on the first day of the operation. Key positions, including Sheikh Aqil and the strategic '46th Regiment,' have fallen under opposition control, bringing them within five kilometers of Aleppo city. This swift advancement has been attributed to effective military planning and the unification of various factions under a single command structure, which has historically been fragmented.
In light of these developments, the Syrian regime has responded by claiming to repel the opposition's attacks, labeling them as terrorist actions. The regime's Ministry of Defense has reported heavy losses inflicted on opposition forces, although independent assessments suggest otherwise.
The timing of this offensive coincides with heightened regional tensions, particularly following the Israeli escalation in the area. Observers note that the opposition may be attempting to exploit the current geopolitical landscape, including a perceived reduction in Iranian influence in Syria and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has diverted Russian attention away from Syria. Furthermore, the Turkish position remains ambiguous, with reports suggesting that the operation may have implicit Turkish approval, as Turkey seeks to leverage the situation to strengthen its influence in Syria.
Iran, on the other hand, has condemned the opposition's actions, framing them as part of a broader American and Israeli strategy to destabilize the region. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has expressed concerns over the violation of the Astana agreements, which aimed to establish de-escalation zones in the region. Meanwhile, Russia's response has been cautious, with limited military involvement, raising questions about the dynamics of its relationship with both the Syrian regime and Turkey.
As the situation continues to evolve, the implications of this operation extend beyond the battlefield, potentially reshaping alliances and power dynamics in the region.
