The rapid territorial gains by rebel forces indicate a significant shift in the balance of power in the Syrian civil war, raising questions about the future of the Assad regime.
The involvement of multiple foreign powers, including Turkey, Russia, and Iran, complicates the conflict and underscores the geopolitical stakes in the region.
If the rebel forces continue their advance, the Assad regime may face further territorial losses, potentially leading to a change in leadership or a shift in control over Syria.
The humanitarian crisis is likely to worsen, with increased displacement and civilian casualties as fighting intensifies near major urban centers.
War in Syria: Rebel Forces Advance Closer to Damascus
The ongoing conflict in Syria has escalated dramatically as rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made significant territorial gains. As of December 6, 2024, the Syrian government has lost control of the southern province of Daraa, with reports indicating that local rebel factions now control over 90% of the area, including its capital, Daraa city. This marks a pivotal moment in the 13-year civil war, which has resulted in over 500,000 deaths.
The HTS-led coalition's offensive, which began on November 27, has seen rapid advances, with rebels now positioned less than 20 kilometers from the southern gate of Damascus. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the regime has lost several key cities, including Aleppo and Hama, in a matter of days. The situation has prompted a significant humanitarian crisis, with over 370,000 people displaced amid the violence.
In response to the rebel advances, the Syrian army has announced a redeployment of troops in Daraa and Sweida to stabilize the situation. However, the government’s reliance on Russian air support has not been enough to halt the rebel momentum. The HTS has stated that its goal remains the overthrow of the Assad regime, and clashes have intensified, resulting in over 800 deaths since the offensive began, including more than 100 civilians.
International reactions have been swift. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the need for civilian protection, particularly for minority groups, and called for a political resolution to the conflict. Concurrently, both the U.S. and Russia have urged their citizens to evacuate Syria, highlighting the deteriorating security situation. The foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, and Iran are set to meet in Doha to discuss the crisis, reflecting the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.
