The rebel offensive represents a significant shift in the Syrian civil war, highlighting the vulnerabilities of Assad's regime.
HTS's recent territorial gains suggest a potential realignment of power dynamics in Syria, with implications for regional stability.
The international community's response, particularly from Russia and Iran, will be crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict.
The humanitarian impact of the ongoing violence is severe, with thousands displaced and civilian casualties reported.
If the rebels capture Homs, they may launch a full-scale assault on Damascus, potentially leading to a regime collapse.
Increased military support from Russia could alter the course of the conflict, possibly leading to a renewed stalemate.
The humanitarian crisis may worsen, with more civilians displaced and at risk as fighting intensifies near major urban centers.
Syrian Rebels Advance Towards Homs, Threatening Damascus
In a significant escalation of the Syrian civil war, Islamist rebel groups, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made substantial territorial gains against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Following the capture of Aleppo and Hama, the rebels are now positioned just five kilometers from Homs, the last major city before the capital, Damascus. The rapid advance of the rebels has raised concerns about the stability of Assad's regime, which appears to be on the verge of collapse.
The recent offensive, which began on November 27, has seen HTS and allied militias, supported by Turkey, push back Assad's forces significantly. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) confirmed that the rebels entered Homs province, taking control of key cities like Rastan and Talbisseh. The fall of Hama, a strategic city, marks a critical turning point, as it opens the path towards Damascus, prompting fears of an imminent assault on the capital.
HTS Leader Outlines Goals and Strategy
In a recent interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani emphasized the importance of the recent victories while advocating for caution. He noted that the rebels' success stems from a newfound internal unity and the establishment of operational structures within the areas they control. Al-Jolani declared that the ultimate goal remains the overthrow of the Assad regime, which he described as effectively dead despite external support from Iran and Russia.
Al-Jolani's remarks reflect a broader ambition among the rebels to not only topple the regime but also to establish a new governance framework in Syria. He acknowledged the need for a transitional government that could facilitate the return of refugees displaced by the ongoing conflict. However, he also indicated that the rebels intend to impose strict Islamist rules, raising concerns about the future political landscape in Syria.
As the situation develops, the response from Russia remains critical. So far, Moscow has limited its involvement to isolated airstrikes, but the potential fall of Homs could prompt a reassessment of its military strategy in Syria. The dynamics of the conflict continue to evolve, with the possibility of increased violence and humanitarian crises as the rebel forces press towards Damascus.
