Surprising Shifts in European Elections: The Fall of the Far Right
The advance of the extreme right in the European elections this Sunday may be less than expected, repeating the history of 2019. Countries like Ireland and the Czech Republic voted in advance this Friday, and the Netherlands voted on Thursday. Official data will not be available until the end of the election in Italy on Sunday at eleven pm European time, but early exit polls from the Netherlands indicate unexpected trends.
The anticipated victory for Geert Wilders' far-right party did not materialize. Instead, a coalition of social democrats and environmentalists led by Frans Timmermans secured the most votes. Wilders' share fell from 23.5% in November to just over 17% now, demonstrating how effective campaigns warning against the rise of the extreme right can mobilize the electorate. Similar trends are observed in larger European nations like Spain, Italy, and France, where last-minute monitorings indicate a resurgence of classical socialism.
In Spain, polls predict a technical tie between the opposition right and Pedro Sánchez's socialists, who had previously trailed by up to six points. Experts speculate that a greater mobilization of left-wing voters is influencing these shifts. France is also seeing fluctuating support; Marine Le Pen's extreme right might attain over 30%, but the socialists, led by MEP Raphael Glucksmann, could see their numbers rise to 15%, potentially surpassing Macron's party.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni appears poised for victory but with a smaller margin than previously expected over the Democratic Party. The trend shows decreasing dominance of the far right across key European countries including Germany, where the far-right AfD may secure less than 15%, down from near 20% in earlier polls.
With major countries like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain holding a significant proportion of seats in the European Parliament, the results from these nations will shape the political landscape. Despite initial fears, the far right's presence may not be as formidable. Their representation could grow by five points at most, from 18% of the parliament currently.
The extreme right's major challenge lies in its disorganization. Divisive issues such as the allocation and management of common funds and differing stances on Russia create internal conflicts, preventing a unified approach. Meanwhile, the center-right, social democrats, liberals, and environmentalists are expected to maintain a comfortable majority with around 400 seats.
- Emmanuel Macron's recent speech has amplified awareness of the potential rise of the far right. Speaking before the European elections, Macron emphasized the risks posed by a growing far-right delegation, which could hinder the efficiency and unity of the European Parliament. He underscored the importance of a cohesive Europe in safeguarding against issues like illegal immigration and ensuring robust pandemic recovery plans.
- Macron's warnings reflect broader concerns across Europe, where political figures warn against the far right's potential to disrupt parliament operations and impede progressive initiatives. Both Macron and other European leaders aim to rally centrist and leftist support to prevent such outcomes.
