The ruble's depreciation is significantly influenced by external factors such as US sanctions and global market dynamics, particularly after the recent US presidential election.
The Russian government's approach to managing currency repatriation and interest rates reflects a balancing act between supporting exporters and controlling inflation.
Market predictions suggest a potential stabilization of the ruble by the end of 2024, with varying forecasts from different economic bodies.
The dollar is expected to fluctuate between 99-107 rubles in the upcoming month, while the euro may range from 104-112 rubles, and the yuan between 13-15 rubles.
By the end of 2024, it is anticipated that the dollar could stabilize around 98-100 rubles, the euro around 106-108 rubles, and the yuan at 13.5-13.9 rubles, although the Ministry of Economic Development has a more optimistic forecast of 93.8 rubles for the dollar.
Potential government interventions may occur to curb further weakening of the ruble, especially as the New Year approaches, to mitigate inflation risks.
The Central Bank of Russia has set the official exchange rates for November 27, 2024, with the dollar reaching 105.06 rubles, the highest since March 2022. The euro also saw an increase, now at 110.49 rubles, marking its highest rate since August 2023. This depreciation of the ruble, approximately 8% against the dollar and 5% against the euro since the beginning of November, is attributed to various external and internal pressures, including a strengthening dollar globally and recent US sanctions against Gazprombank.
Analysts suggest that the weakening ruble benefits exporters by increasing revenue in ruble terms, despite creating challenges for importers and potentially fueling inflation. The Ministry of Finance acknowledges that a weaker ruble supports export revenues, while experts warn that prolonged currency depreciation could lead to heightened inflation expectations among consumers and businesses.
In response to the current economic climate, experts predict that the Central Bank may raise the key interest rate to combat inflation, and there may be adjustments to mandatory repatriation thresholds for foreign currency earnings. Predictions indicate that the dollar may fluctuate between 99-107 rubles in the coming month, while the euro and yuan could also see similar fluctuations.
