Russia has extended its temporary restrictions on gasoline exports until December 31, 2024, in a bid to stabilize the domestic fuel market amid rising demand and planned refinery repairs. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the continuation of these measures, which originally began on March 1, 2024, and were intended for a six-month period. However, as fuel consumption surged, the government decided to reinstate the ban in August after a brief suspension earlier in the summer.
The restrictions will not affect gasoline exports tied to intergovernmental agreements, including those with members of the Eurasian Economic Union such as Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Personal fuel exports and supplies for international humanitarian assistance are also exempt. Experts believe that maintaining these restrictions is crucial to avoid fuel shortages and curb rising prices in the domestic market, which have seen significant increases over the past months. For instance, the cost of AI-92 and AI-95 fuel has surged by 19.4% and 35.2%, respectively, since the beginning of summer.
Analysts predict that if the domestic market stabilizes, prices may return to a more reasonable range. The retail price of gasoline has also seen a gradual rise, with an average increase of 3.9% since spring. By the end of 2024, experts expect retail gasoline price growth to align closely with inflation rates, which are projected to be around 6.5-7%. The government is prepared to implement additional measures to control fuel prices if necessary, including adjusting the parameters of the damper mechanism that compensates oil producers for domestic fuel supply.
- The decision to extend the export ban comes as the Russian government aims to maintain a stable fuel market during a period of increased demand and essential refinery repairs. The fluctuations in fuel prices are closely monitored, as they significantly impact the broader economy. The authorities are keen to ensure that domestic consumers are not adversely affected by rising fuel costs, which can lead to inflation across various sectors.
- Despite the challenges, the government has indicated its readiness to take further measures to stabilize the market. These could include mandating oil companies to increase fuel sales through exchanges or imposing restrictions on resellers to prevent price gouging. The situation remains dynamic, and the Cabinet of Ministers is prepared to adjust its strategies to maintain market equilibrium.
