The 2024 French parliamentary elections have taken a dramatic turn, with the National Rally (RN) emerging as the leading force in the first round of voting. According to initial projections, RN, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, secured 33.13% of the vote, significantly higher than their performance in the 2022 legislative elections. The left-wing alliance, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), followed closely with 29.1%, while President Emmanuel Macron's center camp, Ensemble, lagged behind at 20.04%.
The RN's remarkable performance is attributed to a broadening of its voter base. Traditionally supported by workers and employees, the party has now gained significant traction among retirees, women, and the wealthiest segments of society. Notably, RN secured 31% of the retiree vote, 32% of the female vote, and 32% of the wealthiest voters, all substantial increases from the 2022 elections. The party also saw a sharp rise in support among younger voters, with 32% of those under 35 casting their ballots for RN.
In contrast, the NFP has garnered substantial support from the younger demographic, particularly those aged 18 to 24, with nearly half (48%) voting for the alliance. However, the older electorate showed a preference for the presidential camp and RN, with 32% and 29% of their votes respectively.
The first round of the 2024 elections saw a record voter turnout, reaching 69.5% by the time polling stations closed, the highest since 1981. This high turnout reflects the electorate's heightened engagement and the potential for significant political shifts in France. The early elections were necessitated by the dissolution of the French National Assembly following Macron's party's poor performance in the 2024 European elections.
The final outcome of the parliamentary elections will be determined in the runoff elections scheduled for July 7, which will fill the 577 seats in the National Assembly. If RN maintains its lead, it could result in a historic shift in French politics, potentially leading to a government from the extreme right for the first time since World War II. This could also impact France's EU policy and its military aid to Ukraine.
The early results have already indicated a potential cohabitation scenario, where the government and the president come from different political camps. This outcome could significantly influence the country's domestic and international policies, marking a new era in French politics.
- The RN's success is also evident among non-high school graduates, with nearly half (49%) opting for its candidates, a significant increase from 2022. The NFP, on the other hand, leads among the most qualified voters (Bac +3 and above) with 37% of the votes.
- The early elections have also seen incidents, such as an attack on a polling station head in Nice, highlighting the tense atmosphere surrounding these elections. Despite these incidents, the elections have proceeded with a high level of voter participation.
- The dissolution of the French National Assembly and the subsequent early elections were triggered by President Macron's response to his party's disastrous results in the 2024 European elections. This strategic move aims to realign the political landscape in France.
- The runoff elections on July 7 will be crucial in determining the final composition of the National Assembly and the direction of French politics. The possibility of an absolute majority for RN remains uncertain, but their lead in the first round has set the stage for a potentially transformative political shift in France.
