Russian and Ukrainian Military Struggles Amid Ongoing Conflict
The Ukraine war continues to take a heavy toll on both sides, with Russia and Ukraine facing significant challenges in maintaining their military forces. According to the British Economist, between February 2022 and mid-June 2024, an estimated 462,000 to 728,000 Russian soldiers were incapacitated due to death or serious injury. This staggering number has prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement measures aimed at preventing conscripts from fleeing the country. The Kremlin is now relying on software for 'electronic data exchange' between the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Security Service (FSB) to curb desertions.
In September 2022, Putin ordered the first partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists, leading to a mass exodus of young Russians. Despite assurances from the Kremlin that no further mobilizations would be necessary, they have continued to recruit soldiers, with conscripts being called up twice a year. A new law, effective January 1, 2024, raises the maximum conscription age and prohibits men from leaving the country upon receiving a call-up order, which can now be delivered online.
Prisoner Exchanges and Humanitarian Issues
Amid these military challenges, Russia and Ukraine have continued to engage in prisoner exchanges. On Wednesday, both countries released 95 soldiers each, facilitated by mediation from the United Arab Emirates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his commitment to bringing back all captives, highlighting the importance of these exchanges.
However, the conflict has also led to severe humanitarian issues. Ukraine accuses Russia of deporting around 20,000 minors, a claim Moscow denies. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Putin and his Children's Commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, for the alleged war crime of child deportation. Despite these accusations, Russia has been gradually returning small groups of minors to Ukraine, with Qatar playing a mediating role. The situation remains dire as both countries struggle with the consequences of the ongoing war.
