Russia has repeatedly threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons in the course of the Ukraine war. Now, President Vladimir Putin is initiating a new phase, sparking warnings from US experts. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russian representatives have used drastic words to warn the West about its nuclear capabilities, evoking memories of the Cold War. Despite this, Russia has always stressed adherence to its military doctrine on nuclear weapons, which Putin now seems poised to change.
The current Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in two scenarios: a nuclear attack on Russia or an attack with conventional weapons that endangers the country's existence. Putin has often referred to this doctrine to present himself as a reasonable negotiating partner. However, some hardliners in Russia have urged the Kremlin to tighten the doctrine to force the West to take their warnings more seriously. Putin appears to be considering this change, citing the alleged lower inhibitions of Western states regarding the use of nuclear weapons.
In a press conference in Hanoi, Putin mentioned that Western experts see nothing wrong with the use of so-called mini-nukes, which has led Russia to consider changes in its strategy. The US think tank 'Institute for the Study of War' (ISW) notes that Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his information campaign to prevent further Western support for Ukraine. Putin's speech to Russian officers, claiming that Russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad, is seen as a continuation of this campaign.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have launched a new series of attacks across the border, targeting refineries, an airport, and radar and intelligence centers in an attempt to ease pressure on Donbass and Kharkiv. The Ukrainian army claimed responsibility for these attacks, which included the use of drones to hit oil refineries and other strategic locations. The Kremlin's response was to raise the bar on nuclear weapons, warning Kiev's Western allies that Moscow will continue to develop its arsenal for deterrence purposes.
The epicenter of the clashes remains Khasiv Yar, a strategic city on a hill that would open the way to the last disputed areas of Donetsk. Despite the difficult situation on the ground, Ukraine received good news from Brussels with the green light from the European Union to start accession negotiations. On the other hand, messages from Moscow indicate that Russia still feels strong in the conflict dynamics. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Putin is open to strategic talks with the US and Europeans, provided they address global security issues, including the situation in Ukraine.
The renewed cold war between the USA and Russia also includes Washington's decision to ban the use of the Russian antivirus software Kaspersky, accusing the company of being linked to Moscow authorities. This ban was followed by sanctions against 12 executives of the company, which Kaspersky protested against, calling it a decision based on theoretical fears and the current geopolitical climate.
- The current Russian nuclear doctrine states that Moscow may only use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack on Russia or if an attack with conventional weapons endangers the country's existence. This doctrine has been a cornerstone of Russia's nuclear policy, but recent statements by President Vladimir Putin suggest a potential shift in this stance.
- Putin's remarks about Western states developing atomic bombs with low explosive power and the consideration of changes in Russia's nuclear strategy have raised concerns among international observers. The US think tank 'Institute for the Study of War' (ISW) has highlighted that Putin's nuclear threats are part of an information campaign aimed at deterring Western support for Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces have not been deterred by Russian threats and have launched a series of attacks targeting key infrastructure in Russia. These attacks are part of Ukraine's strategy to ease pressure on critical regions like Donbass and Kharkiv. The Ukrainian army's use of drones to hit oil refineries and other strategic locations demonstrates their capability to strike deep into Russian territory.
- In response to these developments, the Kremlin has reiterated its commitment to developing its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. Putin's statements about further developing Russia's nuclear triad underscore the ongoing tension between Russia and the West.
- The conflict has also seen diplomatic and economic repercussions. Ukraine's progress towards EU accession marks a significant step in its European integration, while the US ban on Russian antivirus software Kaspersky highlights the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict. These actions reflect the deepening divide between Russia and the West, reminiscent of the Cold War era.
