The recent parliamentary elections in France have taken an unexpected turn, with the New Popular Front (NFP) emerging as the surprising victor. According to the first Ifop projections, the left-wing coalition is expected to secure between 180 to 215 seats. This outcome is a stark contrast to the earlier predictions that favored the National Rally (RN), which is now projected to win only 120 to 150 seats.
Initially, the National Rally seemed poised for a significant victory. After the first round of voting on June 30, the party had garnered nearly 33.15% of the votes, with some projections suggesting it could achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, the establishment of a 'republican front' quickly altered the political landscape. Key figures, including Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, called for candidates facing RN opponents to withdraw, preventing the far-right party from securing a majority.
This strategy led to a dramatic shift in the election results. By July 4, projections still showed the RN leading, but with a reduced margin. The Ifop-Fiducial poll indicated that the RN would obtain between 210 to 240 seats, while the NFP was expected to secure 170 to 200 seats. However, the final results revealed a further decline for the RN and a surprising surge for the NFP.
The unexpected victory of the NFP has led to significant political repercussions. Emmanuel Macron's Center Bloc, which had dissolved the National Assembly and called for snap elections, suffered a heavy blow. The presidential camp is now projected to win only 150 to 180 seats, a far cry from the earlier optimistic projections. Macron, however, has stated that he will not step down and intends to complete his term until 2027.
The election results have also sparked demonstrations in Paris, with heightened security measures in place, including the deployment of 30,000 additional police officers. The authorities have banned demonstrations outside the National Assembly to prevent potential violence.
The coalition of parties that united to prevent a far-right victory includes a diverse range of political ideologies, from the extreme left to the centrists and conservatives. They argue that their cooperation is essential to protect the Fifth Republic from the extreme policies of the National Union, which aims to prioritize French citizens over immigrants in areas such as jobs and housing.
- The National Union's policies, which include giving 'national preference' to French citizens over immigrants and restricting automatic citizenship for immigrant children, have been a point of contention. The party, led by Marine Le Pen, is also against forming a coalition government, which limits its ability to govern despite its significant vote share.
- The high voter turnout, the highest since 1997, played a crucial role in the election outcome. The decisive races held in approximately 500 districts where no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round were particularly impactful.
- Macron's decision to hold snap elections was influenced by the National Union's success in the European Parliament elections a month prior. However, this gamble has backfired, leaving his party weakened and his leadership in question.
- The New Popular Front's victory is seen as a significant moment for the left-wing coalition, which includes a broad spectrum of parties from the extreme left to the greens and communists. Their united front against the far-right has proven effective in this election cycle.
