The New Popular Front (NFP) has emerged as the surprise winner in the second round of the legislative elections held this Sunday, July 7. According to the Ministry of the Interior's initial results, the NFP could potentially secure between 180 and 215 seats in the National Assembly, surpassing the previous left-wing alliance, Nupes, which had 151 deputies in 2022.
The NFP, a coalition comprising La France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the French Communist Party (PCF), and Les Écologues, has strategically positioned itself to prevent the National Rally (RN) from governing. The left bloc's tactical withdrawal of over a hundred candidates in third position has been a profitable strategy, ensuring their dominance in the Assembly.
In detail, La France insoumise (LFI) is projected to secure between 87 and 93 seats, the Socialist Party (PS) between 58 and 64 seats, Les Écologues between 33 and 36 seats, and the French Communist Party (PCF) between 9 and 12 seats. This distribution reflects the negotiated allocations of constituencies among the coalition members.
The NFP's success is most pronounced in its traditional strongholds in the southwest and major metropolitan areas. Notable victories include François Hollande in Corrèze, René Pilato in Charente, and Dominique Voynet in Doubs. However, some candidates like Sébastien Jumel and Léo Walter faced defeats.
The former presidential majority, led by Macron's coalition Ensemble! (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons), has seen a significant reduction from 250 deputies to an estimated 150 to 180 seats. The National Rally is projected to secure between 120 and 150 seats, placing them third.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of LFI, has declared the NFP ready to govern, emphasizing plans to repeal the pension reform and increase the minimum wage. He highlighted that the NFP's victory has averted the 'worst solution,' referring to the National Rally's potential governance.
The future of the National Assembly remains uncertain, with no absolute majority in sight. The NFP's potential 180 to 215 seats make it the largest group, but the lack of a clear majority could lead to continued political maneuvering and negotiations. The legislative elections have underscored the shifting political landscape in France, with the NFP poised to play a pivotal role in the coming years.
