The recent legislative elections in France have resulted in a significant shift in the political landscape, with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) dominating the first round. The RN secured between 33% and 34% of the vote, far surpassing President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble, which garnered between 20% and 22%. The left-wing coalition, New Republican Front (NFP), also showed strong performance with 28% to 29% of the vote.
Polls and projections indicate that the RN could potentially achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly, with seat estimates ranging from 240 to 310, surpassing the 289 needed for a majority. This would mark the first time in French history that the far-right could hold such power, positioning Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's chosen successor, as a likely candidate for prime minister.
Emmanuel Macron has called for a broad Democratic and Republican union to counter the RN in the second round of voting. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing coalition, has also urged voters to withdraw support from the RN, stating that his coalition will withdraw candidates wherever they are in third place to prevent an RN victory.
Marine Le Pen celebrated the results in Henin-Beaumont, expressing confidence in the RN's future and their ability to bring about necessary reforms. Jordan Bardella echoed her sentiments, emphasizing the clear desire for change among the French electorate. He assured that he would serve as the prime minister for all, highlighting the historic significance of the upcoming second round of elections.
The situation remains fluid, with various political figures and parties navigating their strategies to either support or block the RN's rise. The Republicans, who secured 10% of the vote, have announced they will not support the RN. Meanwhile, Macron's camp faces internal contradictions, with some leaders offering mixed signals on how to proceed.
The upcoming second round of elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7, will be crucial in determining the final distribution of seats in the National Assembly. Current projections suggest that the RN and its right-wing allies could secure between 225 to 265 seats, while the NFP might obtain 170 to 200 seats, and Ensemble could end up with 70 to 100 seats. The outcome of these elections will significantly impact the future political direction of France.
- Marine Le Pen has successfully rebranded the RN, making it more palatable to the middle class through her policy of 'dediabolisation'. This strategy has paid off, as evidenced by the RN's performance in the European elections, where it received the most votes in over 90% of French municipalities.
- The possibility of 'cohabitation', where the president and the majority in parliament come from different political camps, looms over France. This has only happened three times in the country's history, with the last instance occurring from 1997 to 2002.
- The RN's potential rise to power has sparked concerns among centrists and the moderate right, who are wary of the far-right's influence. This has led to calls for strategic voting and alliances to prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority.
- The final outcome of the elections will depend on the voter turnout and the effectiveness of the various political strategies employed by the parties. The stakes are high, and the results will shape the political landscape of France for years to come.
