Macron's Challenge in the 2024 French Election
The 2024 French election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country, with President Emmanuel Macron facing significant challenges. The latest polls indicate that right-wing populists, led by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), are currently in the lead with 35% of the vote. This marks a potential shift in French politics, as the RN could gain government responsibility at the national level for the first time.
The Electoral Landscape: Polls and Predictions
According to recent polls, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance, consisting of left-wing populists, socialists, communists, and greens, is in second place with 28% of the vote. Macron's Ensemble electoral alliance trails in third place with around 20%. The legislative elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7, will be crucial in determining the final distribution of seats in the National Assembly. The RN and its right-wing allies are projected to secure between 225 to 265 seats, while the NFP could win 170 to 200 seats, and Ensemble is expected to get 70 to 100 seats.
Impact on Festivals and Voter Turnout
The timing of the legislative elections has also affected various summer festivals in France. Organizers are encouraging festival-goers to vote, with some offering incentives such as free tickets or food for those who show proof of voting. For instance, the Macki Festival is offering a free place for Sunday to those who commit to voting, while the Ti Hanok cinema in Auray provides a second ticket for free upon presenting a stamped voter card. This push to increase voter turnout highlights the importance of these elections not just politically but also economically, as public aid to political parties is largely determined by election results.
- The legislative elections are not just a political battleground but also a financial one. State aid to political parties, which amounts to nearly 66.5 million euros annually, is crucial for their operations. This aid is distributed based on the number of elected parliamentarians and the votes they receive. For example, the Presidential Majority is set to receive around 19.5 million euros, while the National Rally will get approximately 10.2 million euros.
- A significant portion of political parties' revenue comes from this public aid. For parties like the Republicans, Renaissance, the National Rally, and La France Insoumise, public aid represents more than 50% of their total revenue. This makes the upcoming elections critical for their economic survival.
- Another factor influencing public aid is gender parity among candidates. Parties that do not present an equal number of male and female candidates face financial penalties. In 2024, the Republicans were penalized nearly 1.3 million euros for not meeting parity requirements. The Presidential Majority also lost over 510,000 euros for similar reasons. These penalties highlight the ongoing struggle for gender equality in French politics.
