The French political landscape is poised for significant changes following the recent European elections, where the right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN) emerged victorious with 31.37 percent of the vote. This result has led President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the French National Assembly and call for new elections, which will take place in two rounds on June 30th and July 7th.
President Macron's decision to exercise Article 12 of the French constitution, often referred to as the 'atom bomb,' is a drastic move that underscores the gravity of the situation. Macron, who has been in office since May 2017 and was re-elected in April 2022, will remain president until 2027. However, the new parliamentary elections could significantly impact his ability to govern.
According to current polls, an absolute majority for the RN is unlikely, but the party is expected to strengthen its position in parliament. This could lead to a scenario of 'cohabitation,' where the president and prime minister come from different political camps. If the RN wins a majority, Macron may have to appoint Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, as the new prime minister. Bardella, who lacks government experience, has stated that he would not govern without an absolute majority.
Cohabitation, a unique feature of French politics, would require Macron and Bardella to make significant compromises. In such a scenario, the prime minister would hold more power in domestic policy, while the president would focus on foreign policy and defense. This shift in power dynamics could complicate Macron's ability to implement his policies.
The upcoming elections could also see the rise of the 'Nouveau Front populaire,' a left-wing alliance of five parties, which aims to prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority. The election results will determine whether Macron can form an 'anti-RN' alliance to appoint a different prime minister.
What remains certain is that Macron does not intend to resign, regardless of the election outcome. The results of the new elections will shape the future of French politics and could lead to historic changes in the composition of the National Assembly.
- The first round of the legislative elections has already shown a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the RN and its allies leading in the number of votes. Projections suggest that the RN and its allies could secure between 230 and 280 seats, just below the absolute majority threshold of 289 seats.
- The New Popular Front is expected to secure between 125 and 165 seats, while the outgoing presidential majority may only garner between 70 and 100 seats. The Republicans are projected to obtain between 41 and 61 seats, followed by other smaller political groups.
- These projections are subject to change as the second round campaign progresses. Candidates may withdraw and endorse opponents, and unexpected developments could influence voter behavior in the coming days.
