Daily Reports
Macron Faces Uphill Battle Against Right-Wing Nationalists in 2024 French Election
The upcoming 2024 French election is shaping up to be a significant political showdown, with right-wing populists, led by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), currently leading in the latest polls. For the first time, right-wing populists could gain government responsibility at the national level in France. The RN is polling at just under 35 percent, while the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) follows with around 28 percent. President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble alliance trails in third place with approximately 20 percent of the vote.
Dissatisfaction with Macron Fuels Election Uncertainty
Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly has created substantial discontent among voters and candidates within his own camp. Many candidates from Macron's camp are choosing to omit his image from their campaign posters to avoid negative voter reactions. This dissatisfaction is partly due to Macron's controversial immigration law and the political crisis triggered by the dissolution of Parliament. Despite some supporters standing by Macron, the overall sentiment within his camp is one of disappointment and exhaustion after seven years of his leadership.
The latest forecasts for seat distribution after the 2024 election suggest that the RN and its right-wing allies could secure between 225 to 265 seats, potentially forcing Macron to appoint RN's Jordan Bardella as prime minister if they achieve an absolute majority. The NFP is projected to gain 170 to 200 seats, while Macron's Ensemble could end up with 70 to 100 seats. This scenario could lead to a cohabitation government, where the president and prime minister come from different political camps, a situation France has experienced three times before.
Despite the uncertainty, some activists within Macron's camp remain hopeful, defending his decision to dissolve Parliament as a necessary move to clarify the political landscape. However, the absence of Macron's image from campaign materials and the focus on other figures like Prime Minister Gabriel Attal indicate a strategic distancing from the president to mitigate voter backlash.
- Candidates from Macron's camp are keen to completely remove his image from their posters for fear of negative reactions from voters dissatisfied with him because of his decision to dissolve the National Assembly.
- This disappointment became clear on the evening of June 9, when Macron announced the dissolution of Parliament after his party lost in the European elections. Feelings of disbelief and astonishment prevailed at the presidential party’s headquarters in Paris, with meager applause for Macron's announcement.
- Activists in the presidential party seem divided, with some supporting Macron's decisions and others distancing themselves. Despite some support for Macron’s controversial decisions, the overall sentiment within his camp is one of disappointment and exhaustion.
- The latest forecasts for the allocation of seats after the 2024 French election suggest that the RN and right-wing allies could secure a significant number of seats, potentially leading to a cohabitation government. This would be the fourth time France has experienced such a political arrangement.
