Daily Reports
The future of French politics hangs in the balance following the recent European elections, which saw Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) emerge as the clear winner with 31.37% of the vote, nearly double that of President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance alliance. In response, Macron has dissolved the French National Assembly and announced new elections, invoking Article 12 of the French constitution, often referred to as the 'atom bomb' due to its dramatic impact on the legislative power of the state.
Macron, who has been President since May 2017 and was re-elected in 2022, faces a challenging political landscape. Although he will remain in office until 2027, the upcoming elections could force him to navigate a parliament with strengthened right-wing positions. Current polls suggest an absolute majority for the RN is unlikely, but the influence of right-wing populists in parliament will undoubtedly complicate Macron's ability to implement his policies.
The new elections, scheduled for June 30th and July 7th, could lead to a 'cohabitation' scenario, where the president and prime minister come from different political camps. This would significantly alter the dynamics of French governance, transferring more domestic policy power to the prime minister while the president focuses on foreign policy and defense. If the RN wins a majority, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, could become the new prime minister, despite his lack of government experience.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of five parties ranging from left to communist, also aims to prevent the RN from securing an absolute majority. Manuel Bompard, a prominent NFP figure, has called for unity among left-wing parties to block the RN and criticized the lack of clear voting instructions from Macron's camp. The NFP's strategy includes withdrawing candidates in certain constituencies to bolster the chances of left-wing or centrist candidates against the RN.
As the second round of legislative elections approaches, the French political landscape remains highly uncertain. The potential for a divided parliament looms large, with no party likely to secure an absolute majority. This uncertainty is compounded by the possibility of new alliances and strategic withdrawals, making the outcome of the elections difficult to predict. What is certain, however, is that these elections will be historic and could reshape the future of French politics.
- Nicolas Batum, captain of the French basketball team, has urged citizens to vote in the second round of the legislative elections, emphasizing the importance of unity and growth over hatred. His comments reflect the broader concern about the rise of right-wing populism and the need for collective action to ensure a positive future for France.
- The French press has widely criticized Macron's decision to call for new elections, describing it as a 'self-destructive disaster' and a 'crash test' for his leadership. Editorials across various newspapers highlight the unprecedented nature of the current political situation and the significant challenges facing Macron's camp.
- Polling projections suggest that the RN and its allies could secure between 230 and 280 seats in the National Assembly, just shy of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. The New Popular Front is expected to gain between 125 and 165 seats, while Macron's Renaissance alliance could end up with only 70 to 100 seats. These projections underscore the fragmented and volatile state of French politics as the second round of elections approaches.
