Macron's Risky Move: Dissolving the National Assembly
Following the dissolution of the National Assembly, new elections are due in France. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has taken a bold step by dissolving the National Assembly and calling for immediate elections. Almost 50 million eligible voters are expected to fill the 577 parliamentary seats on June 30 and July 7. This move comes after Macron's party suffered a defeat in the European Parliament elections, and his political group is currently trailing behind in the polls.
Polls and Forecasts: A Grim Outlook for Macron
The current poll results and forecasts for the new elections in France in 2024 are bleak for Macron. His Ensemble movement, which includes his Renaissance party and several smaller groups, is about 14 points behind the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) party. Marine Le Pen, the RN's leading figure, has expressed her readiness to take on government responsibilities. The New Popular Front (NFP), an alliance of communists, leftists, greens, and socialists, also poses a significant challenge to Macron's camp.
According to a weighted average of polls, the RN leads with 34%, followed by the NFP at 28%, and Ensemble at 20%. The Republicans (LR) and the right-wing radical movement Reconquête (REC) trail behind with 7% and 2%, respectively. Despite the grim outlook, an absolute majority for the RN is not currently foreseeable. However, forecasts indicate that Macron's camp will likely face significant losses in the new elections.
In the 2022 parliamentary elections, Macron's camp won 245 seats, while the RN secured only 89. If the RN becomes the strongest force in the new elections, Macron could be compelled to appoint RN party leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister. This potential shift underscores the high stakes of the upcoming elections.
- The first round of elections for France's National Assembly will take place on June 30, with a second round on July 7. The new chamber will take office on July 18. Macron, who assumed the presidency in 2017 and was re-elected in 2022, aims to restore support for his government through these elections. However, the risk of losing the parliamentary majority and potentially the office of the prime minister looms large due to the French semi-presidential system.
- Macron's presidential term will continue until the 2027 elections. His political journey has been marked by significant milestones, including spearheading the 'Macron Law' for economic reform, launching the political movement En Marche! (now Renaissance), and becoming the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Despite his centrist orientation and efforts to unite the French people, Macron's administration has faced numerous challenges, including protests, political controversies, and the ongoing struggle against far-right forces.
- As the elections approach, the political landscape in France remains tense. The outcome of the new elections will have profound implications for Macron's presidency and the future direction of the country. With the RN and NFP gaining momentum, the political dynamics in France are poised for significant changes.
