The Left's New Surge in French Legislative Elections
The left-wing coalition in France, under the banner of the New Popular Front (NFP), is experiencing a significant resurgence in the latest legislative elections. Following the re-election of six candidates in the first round, the left-wing candidates are in a favorable position in many constituencies. Notable re-elections include Éric Coquerel, Stéphane Peu, Bastien Lachaud, Aurélie Trouvé, Nadège Abomangoli, and Clémentine Autain, all representing the LFI-NFP or PCF-NFP.
Key Constituencies to Watch
In the 7th constituency, Alexis Corbière, despite not being reinvested by LFI, secured a victory with 57.16% of the votes. In the 3rd constituency, Thomas Portes (NFP-LFI) is the favorite against the RN candidate, having led the first round with 41.68% of the votes. Meanwhile, in the 4th constituency, Soumya Bourouaha (PCF-NFP) leads against Mohamed Awad (LFI) with 44.52% of the votes.
The Far-Right Challenge
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the National Rally (RN), is on the cusp of becoming France's youngest prime minister in over 200 years. The RN's significant gains in the first round have brought them closer to power than ever before. However, the left-wing and centrist parties have united to block the far-right's path to an absolute majority. Over 200 candidates from Macron's alliance and the NFP withdrew from the second round to prevent vote splitting.
High Voter Turnout and Strategic Withdrawals
The second round of the elections saw a high voter turnout, with 59.71% participation by 5:00 p.m., a level not seen since 1981. This surge in voter engagement reflects the high stakes of these elections. The strategic withdrawals by centrist and left-wing candidates have significantly impacted the RN's chances, reducing the number of three-way contests and consolidating the anti-far-right vote.
- In the 5th constituency, Aly Diouara (LFI-NFP) is the frontrunner against the mayor of Drancy, Aude Lagarde (UDI), after Raquel Garrido's withdrawal. Diouara leads with 33.11% of the votes.
- In the 8th constituency, Fatiha Keloua Hachi (PS-NFP) is the overwhelming favorite against RN candidate Sébastien Jolivet, having secured 49.30% of the votes in the first round.
- In the 12th constituency, Jérôme Legavre (NFP-LFI) leads with 45.11% of the votes. However, the right-wing voters' support for RN candidate Jean-François Périer remains uncertain, potentially affecting the outcome.
- President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call early elections has puzzled many. One theory suggests he aimed to preemptively address potential parliamentary challenges to his government. Another theory posits that Macron hoped to expose extremist parties to governance, potentially weakening their future appeal.
- Despite internal fractures, the NFP is poised to secure a relative majority of 180 to 215 seats. The presidential camp, although shaken, is expected to retain between 150 and 180 seats, a notable performance given the initial predictions of a rout.
- The RN, despite its gains, is likely to fall short of an absolute majority, with estimates of 120 to 150 seats. The strategic withdrawals by left-wing and centrist candidates have played a crucial role in this outcome.
