Joseph Aoun's extension as Army Commander is seen as a strategic move to stabilize Lebanon's political landscape.
International pressure, particularly from the U.S. and France, is influencing the push for a presidential election in Lebanon.
The upcoming election on January 9, 2025, could be pivotal in determining Lebanon's political future and addressing ongoing security concerns.
If Joseph Aoun is elected, he may prioritize national unity and security reforms.
The political landscape may shift further as various factions negotiate their positions leading up to the election.
Increased international involvement could lead to more significant changes in Lebanon's governance structure.
Joseph Aoun: The Candidate of Necessity for Lebanon's Presidency
As Lebanon grapples with a prolonged presidential vacancy, General Joseph Aoun emerges as a pivotal figure in the political landscape. Following the recent parliamentary session on November 28, 2024, where 48 deputies approved a law extending Aoun's term as Army Commander for an additional year, discussions surrounding the presidential election have gained momentum. The session also set January 9, 2025, as the date for electing a successor to former President Michel Aoun, who left office on October 31, 2022, after 12 failed attempts to elect a new president.
The involvement of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who met with various Lebanese political leaders, has underscored the international interest in stabilizing Lebanon's political situation. Le Drian emphasized the importance of electing a president and forming a new government to ensure Lebanese legitimacy and security, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict with Israel. This aligns with a recent letter from U.S. Congress members urging the Biden administration to apply pressure for a presidential election, highlighting the role of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as a significant obstacle.
The Political Landscape and Future Prospects
The current political climate in Lebanon appears more conducive to resolving the presidential impasse, especially after the recent ceasefire agreement following the Israel-Lebanon conflict. Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem has expressed support for electing a new president, indicating a shift in the party's stance towards facilitating the electoral process. Political analysts suggest that the international community, particularly the U.S. and France, may favor General Joseph Aoun as a candidate due to his military leadership and ability to unify the country.
Despite his name circulating among potential candidates, Joseph Aoun has not publicly declared his intention to run. However, his military background and experience in handling crises position him as a strong contender. The upcoming presidential election is seen as crucial for Lebanon's stability and rebuilding efforts post-conflict, with many hoping for a consensus candidate who can bridge the divides within the country. As Lebanon approaches the election date, the political dynamics will be closely monitored, with the potential for significant changes in the country's governance.
