The fall of the Assad regime marks a pivotal moment in Syrian politics, with potential implications for regional stability.
Israel's actions in the buffer zone reflect a strategic response to perceived threats from a changing political landscape in Syria.
The emergence of a democratic government in Syria could alter the balance of power in the region, challenging Israel's longstanding policies.
The situation underscores the complexities of international relations in the Middle East, particularly concerning the interests of minority groups.
If a strong democratic regime takes root in Syria, it may lead to increased tensions between Israel and the new government.
Israel may intensify its military presence in the Golan Heights to counter perceived threats from a reorganized Syrian opposition.
The fragmentation of Syria could become a focal point of Israeli foreign policy, potentially leading to further interventions in the region.
International responses, particularly from the U.S., could shape the future dynamics of the Syrian conflict and Israel's role in it.
Israeli affairs expert Imad Abu Awad has highlighted a significant shift in Israel's stance towards Syria following the recent fall of the Assad regime. Despite previously viewing the Assad government as a manageable threat, Israel now faces new challenges as the Syrian opposition has taken control of key areas in Damascus, including strategic institutions such as the Mezzeh military airport and the People's Palace. Abu Awad expressed concerns that a strong democratic system could emerge in Syria, which would pose a greater risk to Israeli interests than the Assad regime did.
In response to these developments, the Israeli army has taken urgent measures to seize the buffer zone with Syria and has suggested canceling the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. This move has raised questions about the permanence of Israel's actions, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has indicated a long-term strategy while publicly framing the measures as temporary. Abu Awad noted that Israel's motivations include preventing armed groups from gaining strength and stopping the flow of strategic weapons to the opposition or a new Syrian government.
Abu Awad also pointed out that Israel's focus on protecting minority groups such as Druze, Alawites, and Kurds aligns with a broader strategy of fragmenting Syria, which Israel perceives as beneficial to its national interests. The expert referenced Israeli analyst Abramovich, who warned that the fall of the Assad regime could lead to a shift from rhetorical resistance to practical action by the opposition, especially if they establish a stable democratic government. The rapid collapse of the Assad regime and the ability of new forces to maintain Syrian institutions have created a dual shock for Israel, which views these developments as potentially dangerous.
