Israel and Hezbollah: A New Military Escalation Test
As tensions rise between Israel and Hezbollah, experts are analyzing the current military escalation as a significant test for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Israeli affairs expert Ihab Jabareen, this situation represents a crucial assessment for both parties, particularly as Israel has not faced a substantial price in its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Jabareen emphasizes that the war with Hezbollah is exceptional and cannot be compared to previous conflicts. With Hezbollah now more powerful and better armed than in 2006, Israel is entering a phase where it must evaluate its military strategies and objectives. The ongoing military actions are primarily aimed at gauging the next steps, echoing past strategies in Gaza where Israel attempted to recover prisoners by force rather than diplomacy.
The question arises: can Israel effectively manage the challenges posed by Hezbollah, especially after its inability to eliminate Hamas? Jabareen believes that Israel has not yet established a clear security framework for dealing with Hezbollah, highlighting the complexities of the current situation.
Intelligence Failures and Military Dynamics
Political researcher Hadi Al-Qubaisi adds another layer to the analysis, suggesting that Israel's current military strategies are failing. He notes that recent Israeli raids have predominantly targeted civilian areas, indicating a significant intelligence failure. Furthermore, Hezbollah's recent missile strikes, including an attack on the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, showcase the group's enhanced military capabilities and readiness for conflict.
Al-Qubaisi asserts that Hezbollah has undergone substantial changes in its military structure over the past year, possessing a greater quantity and quality of missiles, which complicates the operational landscape for Israel. Despite Israel's attempts to assassinate key Hezbollah leaders, the group remains resilient and capable of retaliating against Israeli aggression.
The Risk of Escalation
Military expert Hassan Jouni emphasizes that Hezbollah's response to Israeli strikes will depend on the intensity of the attacks. He suggests that Hezbollah is currently focused on deterrence and is not inclined to initiate an expanded confrontation. However, if civilian targets continue to be attacked, it may provoke Hezbollah to escalate its response significantly.
Jouni also dismisses the likelihood of a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, citing past experiences that have proven detrimental for Israel. He argues that Hezbollah is well-prepared for potential conflict and that a ground confrontation would only serve to strengthen Hezbollah's position, while air and cyber confrontations may favor Israel's military capabilities.
Conclusion: A Complex and Uncertain Future
The current military escalation between Israel and Hezbollah is a complex and evolving situation that poses significant challenges for both sides. As experts continue to analyze the dynamics at play, the potential for a broader conflict remains a pressing concern. With both parties assessing their military strategies and capabilities, the coming weeks could prove critical in determining the trajectory of this ongoing confrontation.
