The upcoming census in Iraq is not just a statistical exercise but a critical factor in addressing long-standing ethnic and political disputes, particularly in Kirkuk.
The involvement of diverse ethnic groups in the census process is essential to ensure representation and fairness, reflecting the complex demographic landscape of the region.
Historical context, especially the impact of Saddam Hussein's regime on Kirkuk's demographics, plays a significant role in the current political climate surrounding the census.
If the census results are perceived as politically manipulated, it could lead to increased tensions and conflicts among Kirkuk's ethnic groups.
Successful implementation of the census could pave the way for better resource distribution and political representation, potentially easing some disputes in the region.
Failure to conduct a fair census may result in ongoing instability and distrust among communities in Kirkuk, hindering progress towards political resolution.
Iraq is set to conduct its first comprehensive population census since 1997 on November 20-21, 2024, a significant event that could impact the political and social landscape of the country. The census aims to provide an accurate picture of population distribution, particularly in disputed areas like Kirkuk, which has a complex demographic makeup of Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, and various religious minorities. The Iraqi Council of Ministers has decided that the census will be conducted in disputed areas based on original areas of residence, involving a joint team representing the primary ethnic groups and a Christian member in areas with a Christian majority.
Political analysts express concerns that the census may not resolve long-standing disputes among Kirkuk's diverse communities. The city has a history of demographic changes, particularly during Saddam Hussein's regime, which complicates its cultural and political identity. Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution, which calls for a referendum on disputed areas, remains unimplemented due to ongoing political disagreements.
Local leaders warn against the potential manipulation of census results to serve specific political interests. Concerns include the possibility of family transfers from other governorates to skew demographic data, which could exacerbate tensions among ethnic groups. Leaders from various communities, including Arabs and Turkmen, emphasize the need for a transparent and unbiased census process to avoid further conflict.
