The involvement of the United States, particularly under Trump's administration, is seen as a crucial factor in shaping the future of Israeli-Lebanese relations and the broader regional dynamics involving Iran and Hezbollah.
The debate within the IDF reflects a tension between tactical operations and strategic long-term goals, highlighting the complexities of military engagement in a politically sensitive area like southern Lebanon.
If the ceasefire agreement is accepted, it could lead to a temporary reduction in hostilities, but challenges in enforcement and compliance from Hezbollah may arise.
Continued military operations by the IDF in southern Lebanon could escalate tensions further, potentially leading to a larger conflict if Hezbollah retaliates or if civilian casualties occur.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for the establishment of a buffer zone within Lebanese territory as part of a potential ceasefire agreement amid ongoing tensions with Hezbollah. Political sources indicate that if Lebanon rejects American mediation, Israel may face an escalation of conflict, but there is a push for a settlement with the backing of President-elect Donald Trump. Mediator Amos Hochstein is expected to present an Israeli-American agreement that includes provisions for the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River and the deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon. This agreement aims to ensure Israeli security and prevent the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
Within the IDF, there is a debate on operational strategy in southern Lebanon. Chief of Staff Lt. Col. Hartzi Halevi favors targeted raids to eliminate threats, while some Northern Command officers advocate for a more sustained presence in the region to counter Hezbollah's activities. Concerns have been raised about the implications of a prolonged occupation, reminiscent of the situation in Gaza, which could lead to increased scrutiny and demands for a permanent military presence in Lebanon. Officers argue that the current operational approach allows Hezbollah to exploit gaps in IDF control, necessitating a reevaluation of tactics.
