Historic Turnout in French Legislative Elections
Three weeks after the European elections, France witnessed a significant political event as over 49.3 million voters were called to the polls for the first round of the legislative elections. According to Ifop-Fiducial estimates, the National Rally (RN) led with 34.2% of the votes, followed closely by the New Popular Front with 29.1%. The presidential party Renaissance, along with its allies MoDem and Horizons, came in third with 21.5%. The Republicans secured 10% of the votes. With a turnout of 67%, up by 21.5 points from 2022, the elections marked a notable increase in voter participation.
Record Number of Triangular Elections
This year's legislative elections saw an unprecedented number of triangulars, where three candidates qualify for the second round. Estimates suggest that between 285 and 315 constituencies could experience triangulars, a stark contrast to the eight recorded in 2022. This surge is attributed to the sharp increase in participation and the significant polarization of the election, which centered around three main blocs: the RN, the New Popular Front, and the presidential majority. The high participation rate and the electoral code stipulation that candidates must obtain 12.5% of registered voters' votes to qualify for the second round contributed to this phenomenon.
Overseas Territories and Future Projections
In the overseas territories, the National Rally's influence was less pronounced. While RN candidates qualified for the second round in Guadeloupe and Martinique, they are not expected to win. The participation rate in these regions also saw a significant increase. For instance, in Guadeloupe, the participation rate rose to 33.56% from 25.31% in 2022. In New Caledonia, loyalist MP Nicolas Metzdorf led in the first constituency, while independentist Emmanuel Tjibaou led in the second. The final results of the first round will be crucial in determining the political landscape for the next five years, with the second round set to decide whether the RN and its allies can secure an absolute majority.
- The legislative elections are crucial as they determine the 577 deputies of the National Assembly, elected for a period of five years. This year's elections are particularly significant due to the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President of the Republic.
- The increase in voter participation is notable, with a record number of 2.7 million proxies registered by the Ministry of the Interior. This high turnout is expected to influence the final outcome significantly.
- The polarization of the election campaign around three main blocs has led to a lower number of candidates compared to previous years. This, combined with the high participation rate, has resulted in a record number of triangular elections.
