Rising Tensions: Hezbollah's Threats to Cyprus
In a recent speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a stark warning to Cyprus, stating that the small Mediterranean island could become a target if it allows Israel to use its military bases for operations against Lebanon. The warning has raised alarm among Western diplomats and officials in Cyprus, who fear being drawn into the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Cyprus' Strategic Importance and Response
Cyprus, located just 40 minutes by plane from Tel Aviv, has historically maintained a neutral stance in Middle Eastern conflicts. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides emphasized that the country is not involved in the conflict, describing Nasrallah's statements as 'unpalatable.' He stressed that Cyprus is committed to peace and stability in the region and is a key player in humanitarian efforts, particularly in Gaza. The European Union also expressed its support, stating that any threat to Cyprus is a threat to the entire EU.
Western diplomats have expressed concern over the potential for Cyprus to be dragged into the conflict. An EU envoy in Nicosia highlighted Hezbollah's history of acting on its threats and noted Cyprus' limited military capacity, making it an easy target. The island's strategic location and its improved relations with Israel, including recent military exercises, add complexity to the situation.
Despite the heightened rhetoric, experts believe that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains unlikely. Both sides are aware of the devastating consequences such a conflict would have, particularly for Lebanon. The Biden administration is also expected to intervene to prevent a two-front war, which could involve other Iranian-backed actors and further destabilize the region.
- Cyprus has taken steps to distance itself from the conflict, focusing on its role in humanitarian efforts. In March, the island began allowing aid ships to sail from its ports as part of international efforts to create a humanitarian aid route to Gaza. The first shipment carried 200 tons of food, equivalent to about 500,000 meals. An EU logistics center was also established in Cyprus to facilitate the flow of aid to Gaza.
- Cyprus has criticized some of Israel's actions in Gaza, particularly those that have hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid. In April, it issued a joint statement with the United Arab Emirates condemning a deadly Israeli attack on the World Central Kitchen charity group. However, Cyprus has also condemned Hamas for its attacks on Israel, highlighting its balanced approach to the conflict.
- The island's complex history, including the division between the Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish-speaking Northern Cyprus, adds another layer of geopolitical tension. The Republic of Cyprus, recognized by most of the international community, has maintained strong diplomatic ties with Israel since 1960. These ties have strengthened in recent years, particularly with joint military exercises aimed at countering regional threats.
- While the threat from Hezbollah has raised concerns, the likelihood of Cyprus becoming directly involved in the conflict remains low. Both Israel and Hezbollah are aware of the high costs of an all-out war, and international actors, including the United States, are likely to intervene to prevent further escalation.
