For the first time in 18 years, the possibility of an open war between Israel and Hezbollah looms large. The border skirmishes, which have intensified since the onset of the Gaza war, have raised fears of a regional conflict involving the USA, Israel's key ally. Experts indicate that Hezbollah has significantly strengthened since its last major conflict with Israel in 2006, gaining combat experience in the Syrian war and amassing an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets.
Hezbollah's capabilities have grown, with the militia now able to hit nearly any target in Israel, including civilian facilities. Israeli Brigadier General Shlomo Bron stated that a ruthless war would lead to extensive destruction on both sides. However, the consequences for Lebanon, already in economic and political turmoil, could be catastrophic. Israeli Defense Minister Joav Galant warned that Lebanon could be 'taken back to the Stone Age' in the event of war.
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, remains defiant, claiming that the militia will strike back without restrictions if war is imposed. Despite Nasrallah's rhetoric, Lebanon's severe economic crisis and lack of a fully functioning government make it ill-prepared for a major conflict. Analysts like Riad Kahwaji believe that while Hezbollah can cause significant damage in Israel, the Israeli response would be far more devastating.
US mediation efforts to de-escalate the situation have so far been unsuccessful. Hezbollah insists on a ceasefire in the Gaza war before halting its attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, Israel continues its operations in Rafah, with a decision on a diplomatic or military resolution expected soon. The potential for a wider regional conflict is heightened by Iran's support for Hezbollah and its long-term strategy against Israel. Iran's involvement, however, is likely to remain indirect due to its own domestic challenges.
Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani emphasized that continued Israeli aggression would activate new energies against it. He criticized the US for supporting Israel and called for recognizing the Palestinian right to self-determination. Bagheri's statements underscore the broader regional tensions and the improbability of peace and stability without addressing the underlying issues of occupation and aggression.
- The situation between Israel and Hezbollah is a critical flashpoint in the Middle East, with potential repercussions for the entire region. The increased intensity of border skirmishes raises the risk of a larger conflict that could draw in multiple countries.
- Hezbollah's enhanced military capabilities, including its extensive rocket arsenal and combat experience from the Syrian war, present a significant threat to Israel. The militia's ability to target Israeli cities and infrastructure could overwhelm Israel's missile defenses, leading to severe damage and casualties.
- Lebanon, already facing an unprecedented economic crisis and political instability, would suffer enormously in the event of war. The country's fragile state makes it highly vulnerable to further destabilization, which could have long-lasting impacts on its recovery and stability.
- US diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict have yet to yield results, with both Hezbollah and Israel holding firm on their positions. The involvement of Iran, a key ally of Hezbollah, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Iran's strategic interests in the region and its support for militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen highlight the interconnected nature of the conflicts in the Middle East.
