Germany Faces Persistent Rain and Floods: A Summer on Hold
Germany is experiencing an unusually cool and wet start to June, with meteorologists warning of continued rain and flood risks. Meteorologist Dominik Jung from wetter.net has forecasted a grim outlook, marking June as a potential washout in terms of summer weather. Already, heavy rainfall has caused numerous floods, particularly in southern Germany, Austria, and the Alpine region. The forecast indicates that this wet spell is far from over, with further rain expected to exacerbate the situation. The keyword 'flood protection' remains vital as Jung emphasizes the need for caution, especially in areas already saturated with water.
The current weather patterns are driven by low-pressure systems moving west to east across Europe. This situation, known as a Vb (five B) weather pattern, involves these systems drawing moisture from the Mediterranean, resulting in heavy rains. According to the European weather model, up to 200 liters of rain could drench southern Germany, potentially leading to what some experts describe as a '2.0 tidal wave' scenario. This would prove catastrophic, particularly for Bavarian towns still dealing with well-filled rivers and waterlogged soils.
Struggling Manufacturing Sector: A Bleak Economic Signal
Adding to Germany’s woes is a sluggish performance in its manufacturing sector. Preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) shows that real orders, adjusted for prices, fell by 0.2% in April. This decline, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, marks a 5.4% drop in orders from February to April compared to the previous three months. Although there was a 2.9% increase in orders excluding large orders in April, the quarter still showed a 1.4% decline, punctuating the sector’s continuing instability.
Economists had hoped for a modest recovery, predicting a 0.5% increase, but the fourth consecutive decline highlights significant challenges. LBBW bank economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch described the 0.2% fall as a 'mini-decline', but one that underscores the difficulties the German economy faces in regaining stability.
In Germany, temperatures remain below average, with the north of the country seeing little more than 20 degrees Celsius and expectations of spiking up to 27 degrees in the south intermittently. However, these warmer spells are accompanied by mixed weather, including showers and thunderstorms. Meteorologist Jung humorously remarks that 'in calendar terms, we are still in the middle of spring 2024,' offering a slight respite for anyone longing for summer.
- The forecast for the summer of 2024 from the centennial calendar suggests a continuation of these rainy conditions, with June ending particularly wet. As Germany braces for worsening floods and a sluggish manufacturing sector, there is an added remark from meteorologists predicting a 'hellish summer of the millennium,' which could bring extreme heatwaves later in the season.
