In a potential setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz is expected to announce his withdrawal from the coalition government. This move follows a series of disagreements over the management of the ongoing offensive in the Gaza Strip, which has now reached its eight-month mark. Although the official announcement from Gantz's National Unity party has not specified the reason for his appearance, political analysts believe it signals his intention to withdraw support from the emergency executive formed by Netanyahu shortly after Hamas attacked on October 7.
Gantz, who transitioned from opposition to join Netanyahu in a wartime national unity government, holds a key voting position within the smaller war cabinet. Despite his previous roles as Chief of the General Staff and Minister of Defense, Gantz issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu in May, requiring a post-war plan for Gaza by June 8. The Prime Minister has yet to meet this demand.
Negotiations between Netanyahu and Gantz reportedly continued until Wednesday night without resolution, and there are currently no active discussions between their respective parties, Likud and National Unity. Amidst this political turmoil, the US government has intervened, urging Gantz to delay his departure to avoid complicating ongoing efforts for a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas.
Gantz's potential departure could symbolically undermine Netanyahu, despite not posing an immediate threat to the survival of his coalition, which remains the most right-wing in Israeli history with 64 seats in Parliament. However, other fissures within the coalition could soon threaten its stability. Far-right factions such as Jewish Power and Religious Zionism have expressed intentions to leave if a truce with Hamas is reached, while ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism might withdraw support over military exemption issues.
A recent opinion from Israel’s legal adviser, Gali Beharev Miara, highlights another layer of complexity. Miara advocates for an immediate state commission of inquiry into the Iron Swords War to address international legal challenges. Despite Netanyahu’s resistance to this, citing the war’s ongoing status and suggesting alternative appointment mechanisms, the need for an independent inquiry remains paramount for mitigating international legal risks.
Political analysts suggest Netanyahu may prefer to end the war, aligning with sentiments privately held by some military generals. While Netanyahu cannot overtly state his desire to cease military operations due to political reasons, internal pressures from figures like Gantz and military officials highlight the increasing need to reevaluate Israel’s military strategy in Gaza. Concerns over war fatigue in Israeli society and the potential escalation of conflicts on the northern border with Hezbollah also underscore the urgency of this reassessment.
- Should Gantz's party depart from the government, Netanyahu’s coalition will face significant challenges. The survival hinges on the delicate balance of interests and potential defections from crucial right-wing and ultra-Orthodox factions.
- International legal matters loom large, with the potential for arrest warrants against key Israeli officials. The establishment of a state commission of inquiry might be critical to navigate these threats, but Netanyahu’s reluctance indicates a preference for maintaining executive control over the investigative process.
- Moreover, the war in Gaza has highlighted the complex interplay between military objectives and political maneuvers, with internal disagreements surfacing as a result of prolonged conflict and unclear post-war plans.
