After a strong turnout in the first round of the early legislative elections last Sunday, voter mobilization appears to be dwindling in the second round. By noon, the participation rate in Paris was only 22.03%, a drop from last week's 25.48%. This is still significantly higher than the 10.81% turnout recorded at noon during the 2022 legislative elections.
The quiet streets of Paris this Sunday morning indicate that many Parisians have already begun their vacations, with some having made proxy votes before leaving. Notably, half of Paris's deputies were elected in the first round, particularly in the eastern districts dominated by left-wing supporters. However, suspense remains in nine of the eighteen constituencies.
The second round of this historic legislative election is marked by heightened tensions and a record participation rate of 26.63% by noon. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. and will close at 8 p.m., with exit poll results expected shortly after.
Amid fears of post-election violence, the French government has deployed 30,000 police officers nationwide, including 5,000 in Paris. Businesses and banks in central Paris, Lyon, and Grenoble have been boarded up to prevent potential riots and looting. An anti-fascist demonstration has been banned by the prefecture, reflecting the charged atmosphere following a campaign filled with xenophobic violence.
The National Regrouping (RG), formerly known as the National Front, is poised to become a dominant force in the new National Assembly. However, it is unlikely to secure an absolute majority needed to force President Emmanuel Macron into a cohabitation government. Polls suggest RG will win between 175 and 205 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise, is expected to secure between 145 and 175 seats, potentially making it the second-largest force in the Assembly. Meanwhile, Macron's centrist coalition is projected to see its number of parliamentarians halved to a maximum of 148.
Macron, who called for the snap election after his coalition's defeat in the European parliamentary elections, may face the remainder of his presidency without a clear ruling majority. This could force him to share power with opposition parties, complicating his pro-business and pro-European Union agenda.
As voting continues, prominent politicians have already cast their ballots. President Emmanuel Macron voted in Le Touquet, while former socialist president Francois Hollande, who has emerged from political retirement, voted in Correze. Marine Le Pen, whose district did not require a second round, is not voting today.
The election results could plunge France into a prolonged period of political uncertainty and parliamentary stalemate. Macron may need to form a broad coalition or a technocratic government if no party secures a majority in the National Assembly. The far-right RG, led by Marine Le Pen, aims to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with Macron's policies, particularly regarding immigration and social benefits.
- In Paris, the New Popular Front has already secured significant victories in the eastern districts, known for their left-wing leanings. However, the contest remains tight in nine constituencies, including the 15th (part of the 20th), where a dissident candidate faces off against the official party nominee.
- The government's deployment of 30,000 police officers underscores the high stakes and tensions surrounding this election. Businesses in major cities have taken precautionary measures, anticipating potential unrest. The ban on anti-fascist demonstrations further highlights the volatile political climate.
- The National Regrouping's inability to secure an absolute majority could lead to a fragmented and unstable political landscape. With polls indicating that RG will fall short of the 289-seat threshold, the possibility of a coalition government looms large.
- Macron's weakened position, following his coalition's poor performance in the European parliamentary elections, raises questions about his ability to govern effectively. The potential need for a coalition or technocratic government could further complicate his administration's efforts to implement its agenda.
- The election's outcome could significantly impact France's role within the European Union and NATO, given the far-right's eurosceptic and anti-immigration stance. Marine Le Pen's ambitions to reach the Elysée Palace add another layer of complexity to the political scenario.
